Dutch vicious cycle of collapsing governments What’s next for Netherlands?

Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp resigned late on August 22 amid a political deadlock over what he viewed as the need for stronger measures against Israel, dealing a blow to the country’s already fragile caretaker administration. His colleagues from the centrist New Social Contract (NSC) party followed him out of the caretaker government, further straining the stability of the EU’s fifth-largest economy.

After hours of inconclusive debate in parliament on August 22 about the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, Dutch media outlets quoted Veldkamp — who had advocated for tougher sanctions against Israel over its renewed military campaign on Gaza City — as saying in the evening that he had “insufficient confidence” he would have “the space in the coming weeks, months, or even a year to chart the course I deem necessary.”

NSC leader Nicolien van Vroonhoven said the party had delivered a clear message that “the situation has to improve.” “It didn’t,” she said plainly. “So now steps are being taken.”

With NSC’s departure, five ministerial roles (Social Affairs, Public Health, Foreign Affairs, Home Affairs, and Education) and four state secretariat positions (Taxation, Allowances and Recovery, Legal Protection, and Foreign Trade) will be left vacant.

Emeritus Professor of constitutional law Paul Bovend'eert sees no other option but for the VVD and BBB to keep leading. Speaking to the Dutch media outlet AD, he said that forming a new cabinet is unrealistic. “In essence, the VVD and BBB caused this rift. They refused to agree to the Minister of Foreign Affairs' regime, even though he had made it clear that Gaza was at the heart of his policy.”

That the NSC has also withdrawn its remaining ministers is only logical, according to Bovend'eert. “A new Minister of Foreign Affairs from the NSC would face the same obstacles. That would make them completely politically untrustworthy.”

Caretaker ministers have resigned and been replaced before. But for a minister to resign over a substantive dispute, with his entire team stepping down, is unprecedented, Bovend'eert said. “I can't think of any other instance where this has happened before. It is quite remarkable.”

The NSC’s exit further destabilizes the Netherlands’ government, which already collapsed in June when Geert Wilders’ far-right Party For Freedom (PVV) walked out over a migration policy dispute. His party, which secured the most votes in the last election, quit the four-party coalition then.

The withdrawal of NSC leaves only two parties in the cabinet: the populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB) and the liberal People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD). Both reacted with dismay to Veldkamp's move, saying it left the Netherlands “rudderless.”

Future scenarios for Dutch Kingdom

The VVD and BBB together hold only 32 seats in parliament, a clear minority. The plan is for the remaining parties to continue in caretaker capacity and fill the vacant posts.

However, Bovend'eert added a nuance: “The cabinet was caretaker and remains caretaker. In that respect, not much will change.”

Dutch media reports indicate that they aim to keep things under control until the next coalition formation following the upcoming general election scheduled for October 29.

The Christian Democrats (CDA), led by Henri Bontenbal, have surged to joint second place in the latest voter intention poll ahead of the October general election.

According to the Ipsos-I&O survey, the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) of Geert Wilders remains in the lead with 27 seats in the 150-seat parliament—10 fewer than it secured in 2023. The CDA and the PvdA-GroenLinks alliance now share second place with 24 seats each. For the CDA, this marks a dramatic recovery from 2023, when the party won only five seats after decades as a cornerstone of post-war coalitions.

The right-leaning VVD, which released its election manifesto earlier this month, is now in third place with 20 seats. Meanwhile, D66 has climbed from nine to 12 seats in the latest poll, three more than its result in the 2023 election.

By Nazrin Sadigova