Estonia spy chief: Russia shows no signs of attacking Baltic states

Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service Director General Kaupo Rosin has said there is currently no indication that Russia intends to attack any of the Baltic states or NATO more broadly.

Speaking to ERR, Rosin stressed that it is Estonia’s responsibility to maintain the current security situation.

Rosin explained that Russia has adjusted its behaviour following incidents such as undersea cable disruptions, drone incursions into NATO airspace, and aircraft violations.

“Following various incidents — starting with the undersea cables some time ago or the different drone incursions into NATO airspace or aircraft violations — what we've seen is that, in response to reactions from the West or NATO, Russia has taken various measures to prevent such incidents from happening again in the future,” he said.

The intelligence chief noted that Russian aircraft are now carefully monitoring flight paths over the Baltic Sea, adhering strictly to avoid triggering incidents. Since NATO’s presence in the region increased, there have been no further cable-related incidents. He added that Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” remains active but is constrained by international oversight and Western operations.

Rosin also addressed recent security incidents, including an aircraft that remained in Estonian airspace for 12 minutes and a small Russian operation in the Saatse Boot region. He described Estonia’s response as appropriate and said these events prompted behavioural adjustments by Russia.

On hybrid and influence operations, Rosin said: “'Hybrid' is a nice-sounding word — it gives a sort of soft and fuzzy impression of the activities involved. But in reality, we should call things by their proper names. If it's sabotage, then it's sabotage. If it's a cyberattack, then it's a cyberattack.”

He warned that Russia’s influence operations aim to slow European rearmament, create societal divisions, and exert political pressure, but noted that they are largely avoiding open conflict with NATO.

Regarding sanctions, Rosin said they continue to have a significant impact on Russia’s war industry and state apparatus. “Resource-restricting sanctions include, for example, access to Western financial markets, which Russians currently don't have. That severely limits their ability to borrow and so on,” he said, adding that lower oil prices directly reduce Russian income.

Rosin concluded by emphasising the importance of maintaining alliances and defence readiness. “Russia does still respect NATO. Our task is to keep it that way, so that if they respect it today, they will also respect it a year from now and three, five or ten years into the future,” he said.

By Aghakazim Guliyev