Will China come to Venezuela's defence in case of US invasion?

As tensions between Venezuela and the United States edge toward open conflict, China has, unsurprisingly, emerged as a vocal critic of Washington’s actions. Beijing views the US escalation — including the seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers, strikes on alleged drug-smuggling vessels, and a naval blockade — as a clear example of American unilateralism. The key question, however, is whether this rhetoric will translate into concrete Chinese action across the Pacific.

China argues that US moves against Caracas violate Venezuelan sovereignty and the UN Charter, a position underscored when Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke by phone with his Venezuelan counterpart on December 17, as an analysis by Al Jazeera of the current situation in the Latin American country recalls.

During the call, Wang condemned US “unilateral bullying” and expressed support for Venezuela’s right to “defend its sovereignty and national dignity”.

Despite this strong language, the article notes that Beijing has offered little beyond diplomatic statements. China appears cautious about being drawn into a geopolitical confrontation and its restraint could signal the limits of its influence in Latin America.

China’s long-term strategy in Latin America

For more than 20 years, China has steadily expanded economic ties across Latin America. Today, it is South America’s largest trading partner and Mexico’s second-largest, underscoring its deep economic footprint in the region.

According to the article, this engagement is driven by strong economic complementarity. Agricultural imports — especially soybeans from Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay — have bolstered China’s food security, particularly during its trade disputes with the US. At the same time, lithium from Chile, Argentina and Bolivia has become critical to China’s rapidly expanding electric vehicle industry. Chinese EV exports to Latin America surged by 55% in 2023 alone.

The US, which has long regarded Latin America as its strategic backyard, has responded warily to China’s growing presence. The article recalls how US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a prominent China hawk, toured the region in February, saying he aimed to “counter the [CPC’s] influence in the Western Hemisphere” and urging governments to scale back ties with Beijing.

Who holds the stronger cards?

While Washington lacks an attractive economic alternative and often relies on tariffs and pressure, the article argues that it still holds the upper hand. Although most Latin American countries recognise the “one China” policy, the region remains Taiwan’s strongest diplomatic stronghold, with seven countries in Latin America and the Caribbean maintaining formal ties with Taipei.

This dynamic was highlighted this week when Trump-backed conservative Nasry Asfura won Honduras’ presidential election after pledging to cut ties with China and restore relations with Taiwan. Over the past year, several countries have also bowed to US pressure to curb engagement with Beijing. Panama withdrew from China’s Belt and Road Initiative in February, and a Hong Kong-based firm operating at the Panama Canal later agreed to sell most of its stake to US companies. Mexico, meanwhile, announced tariffs of up to 50% on Chinese goods starting January 1.

Venezuela as stand-alone case

The article argues that while US pressure on Venezuela is not solely about China, any political change in Caracas would damage Beijing’s interests. China is Venezuela’s largest crude oil customer and values stability there, even if Venezuelan oil is not among its top 10 imports. US interceptions of oil shipments nonetheless undermine China’s broader energy strategy of diversifying suppliers.

Beijing also views events through a geopolitical lens. The Trump administration’s National Security Strategy signals a renewed focus on the Monroe Doctrine and US dominance in the Americas, while still maintaining military pressure on China in Asia, particularly over Taiwan. These mixed signals have reinforced Beijing’s caution.

In response, China recently released a new policy paper on Latin America and the Caribbean, which Al Jazeera describes as largely symbolic. The article concludes that even in the event of a US invasion of Venezuela, China would likely limit itself to diplomatic positioning — using the crisis to promote a multipolar world and international law, rather than offering direct support to Caracas.

By Nazrin Sadigova