"Normalisation between Baku, Yerevan unlikely in near future" Sergey Borovikov for Caliber.Az

Caliber.Az presents an interview with the leading analyst of the Association for Border Cooperation, Russian expert Sergey Borovikov.

- Sergey Yevgenyevich, how do you assess the current stage of normalisation of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations at the talks in Moscow, Washington and Brussels?

- I am sceptical about the next stage of the normalisation of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, and there are two reasons for this. Firstly, these negotiations have been going on with varying success for many years, and from my point of view, it is difficult to expect a special breakthrough in them.

Secondly, the world as a whole is now in a state of acute crisis and significant turbulence. Therefore, in the conditions of such strongly torn external players, it seems naive to me to hope for a settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict in the medium term.

- That is, do you think that the likelihood of peace between Baku and Yerevan is extremely low?

- I think yes.

- This option is possible since Armenia continues to arm itself, actively purchasing weapons from Iran and India. What do you say about this?

- Armenia, having lost the hot phase of the conflict, is apparently trying to restore some kind of military parity, but how much it will succeed is a big question and raises doubts. As for the purchase of Indian weapons, to be honest, this seems to me anecdotal in general.

As for the prospects for the militarisation of the region, I will say this: it is quite militarised as is,  I don’t think it can be much worse.

- According to your assessment, is the deployment of the  Collective Security Treaty Organisation [CSTO] mission on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border still relevant for the Russian Federation?

- I think the issue of deploying the CSTO mission on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border is quite relevant, but it's hard to say how it will turn out.

- And you do not admit the possibility of dissolution of the CSTO, given the discontent of some members of this military bloc?

- No. The prospects for the dissolution of the CSTO seem to me very doubtful. I do not see any special prerequisites for its elimination.

- How do you see the outcome of the war in Ukraine, especially in light of the latest events in the Russian Federation related to the armed rebellion?

- It is difficult to give any estimates on Ukraine with terms, but from general considerations I will assume that in the coming months, the counteroffensive of Ukraine may fizzle out, after which a Russian advance beyond the Dnieper line is possible, and most likely somewhere at this time there may be an attempt to bring in a contingent Western troops, primarily Polish, into the territory of western Ukraine.

It's hard to say what the final configuration will be. But it is quite logical that only after that some kind of stabilisation in the negotiation process can begin.

As for the latest rebellion, I believe that its nature is being misinterpreted by the mainstream media. This rebellion is not against Putin's policies, but against those who sabotage them and carry them out ineffectively.

- So personnel changes in the government of the Russian Federation are expected in the near future?

- I think that as a result of these events, there will be significant personnel changes, and in general, it is possible to strengthen the overall military component in the Russian Federation than to weaken it.

- How do you see the future of Russia against the backdrop of the geopolitical crisis?

- Our crisis is long and will not go anywhere in a reasonable time. But given that macroeconomically Russia is quite stable, the latest events should be assessed as prerequisites for a cleansing of the fifth column and for a further stable domestic political situation in the country.