Ongoing Ukraine war prompts EU to boost defence capabilities Rising alarm of a war

The ongoing war in Ukraine and Russia’s unwillingness to step back from the eastern territories pushes the Western countries to take additional measures against Moscow, though those measures seem insufficient to reach geopolitical goals. The war unfolded in 2022, with Moscow's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine entering another phase with Kyiv's counter-offensive operations alongside the line of contact.

However, occasional stalemates in counter-offensive triggered debates in the West regarding the necessity of further arms supply and military aid to Kyiv. But progress on the ground has been slower than hoped overall, and while Ukraine has been able to rely on its military progress in the past as political currency, it is now having to utilise diplomacy more than ever.

In addition to such debates, the European Union (EU) member states initiated debates to boost the union's defence capabilities to counter Russia's further military aggression. Consequently, Russia’s strategy for prevailing in the long war with Ukraine does not have a protracted timeline and looks no further than 2024. Moscow hopes that the Western support for Ukraine will erode soon and the Ukrainian army’s capacity to conduct offensive operations will be exhausted.

Therefore, the EU seeks to strengthen defence readiness and develop the European defence technological and industrial base, including with more investments. In this vein, the upcoming Granada meeting aims to prepare a political direction for the next European Commission, tackling various subjects such as competitiveness, migration and enlargement.

Despite criticism and internal debates, the EU and the US will be involved in the Ukraine war for now and supply Kyiv with necessary financial aid. Russia believes that conflict fatigue would grow in both Europe and the US but that Washington would continue to be directly involved in the conflict.

During the EU-Ukraine summit in Kyiv on October 3, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged the EU to expand sanctions on Russia and Iran, which has supplied attack drones for Russian forces to bring about a speedy end to fighting.

Nevertheless, the further Western support to Ukraine will not be as smooth as a year ago. For example, in the US, right-wing conservatives have become increasingly vocal in their attacks on US support, and a former Slovakian prime minister who promised “not a single round” of assistance led his party to victory in parliamentary elections over the weekend.

In Russia, the growing costs of the war are driving the increase in expenditures. Conservative figures estimate the war’s daily costs at around $300 million. As a result, the Russian Central Bank has raised interest rates to 13 per cent, which is much higher than the target figure of 4–5 per cent to account for inflation.

On the other hand, technical shifts in the West and the US are also sources of concern for Kyiv in terms of military aid. As such, on September 29, Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Mark Milley handed the reins over to his replacement, which came at a precarious time.

As the top military adviser to the president, Milley has weighed in on every significant decision in the Ukraine conflict, from what weapons to send Kyiv to how to best train its forces. He and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, a former four-star general, have led the charge in rallying the West to support Ukraine with modern arms and equipment.

In this context, with the leaving of Gen. Milley, his successor, Gen. Brown, may face severe challenges in continuing his predecessor's effective work with Ukraine. On the contrary, numerous challenges may occur as there is a growing sense in Washington and Europe that the West may be weary of the fight.

Brown will have to walk the same high-stakes tightrope Milley has throughout the 19-month conflict, balancing helping Ukraine push back Russian forces without dragging the American military into a full-blown conflict.

Ukraine is willing to finish the war in early 2024 by liberating the vast territories in the eastern part and conducting a blitzkrieg in Crimea. However, Russia will do its best to turn this campaign into a war of attrition and force Kyiv to negotiate with it under its terms and conditions. Nonetheless, Moscow has little time to ensure a breakthrough in the frontline before the EU announces a new military aid package to Kyiv.