"Only direct threat of military force can stop Iran" Experts on Caliber.Az

Iran will not be able to evade the fact that it has supplied lethal weapons to various countries. According to US State Department Spokesman Miller, Washington recently handed Kyiv evidence of Russia's use of Iranian Shaheds to attack Ukrainian infrastructure. Just a few days earlier, Iranian Foreign Minister Abdollahian had flatly denied Russia's use of Iranian drones in the war against Ukraine at a meeting with his Japanese counterpart.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin says that Moscow and Tehran are now reliable military partners, which, in fact, proves Iran's involvement in supplying weapons to the Russian Armed Forces.

Iran's attempts to disassociate itself from anything to do with the Russian-Ukrainian war against the backdrop of irrefutable facts look like a lazy and uncomplicated excuse. As if saying that even if it is true then what can be done as Tehran is already under all sorts of sanctions on all sides?

The same applies to Iran's "peaceful atom" programme, which, despite all of Tehran's claims that it is not enriching uranium for the creation of an atomic bomb, in the opinion of many international experts is already at the final stage of creating nuclear weapons.

Meanwhile, the world community, except for Israel, has not shown much initiation with regard to Iran. At least, it seems that the US is not going to fully support Israel in the event of a war with Iran.

So, can someone still punish Iran reasonably enough, but without starting a war, for disobeying the rules established by the world community, or rather, by the bodies representing it, in particular the UN? And more specifically, what measures are Ukraine and Israel, which are suffering the most from Iran's actions today, going to take?

Ukrainian international pundit Maksym Yali told Caliber.Az that the likelihood of whether Iran will be punished for helping Russia in the war against Ukraine will depend on how the war itself ends and in what timeframe.

"I should note that Iran now has a greater chance of being exposed for another and even more cynical aspect of its policy - attempting to build nuclear weapons. The recent statement by US Defence Secretary Austin during his visit to Israel, that Washington will not allow Tehran to build nuclear weapons, as well as strikes on Iranian military sites this year, are all wake-up calls to Israel and the US. So, if Iran comes close to building nuclear weapons, which reportedly Russia is helping it with, I think tougher action will follow.

And these actions may be even tougher if Trump, who in due time both tightened sanctions against Iran, withdrew from the nuclear deal and was the first to accuse Tehran of machinations in this matter, wins the US presidential election.

Iran definitely holds second place in the top three in terms of the number of sanctions imposed against it [Russia has the first place and North Korea has the third]. And yet, these sanctions could not prevent Iran from setting up production of the same Shaheds, components from many Western countries were found in which upon disassembling,” the Ukrainian pundit said.

According to Yali, Ukraine has joined the sanctions against Iran, but the Iranian economy is not so dependent on the Ukrainian one to feel any damage. Moreover, Iran has not yet paid compensation to the families of those killed in the Ukrainian plane it shot down in 2020.

"There is only one effective way to counter authoritarian and totalitarian regimes - military measures. Only military force, the threat of destruction is, as history shows, the only true effective lever of pressure on aggressive regimes, which include Russia and Iran," the Ukrainian political analyst concluded.

Meanwhile, Israeli journalist and researcher of Iran Michael Borodkin believes that Iran denies supplying arms to Russia not so much out of fear of sanctions or punishment from Western countries, but in order to promote its version that only the West is to blame for the Ukrainian war, which provoked the conflict by various tricks and is now preventing Ukraine from stopping the war by supplying arms.

"At first glance, it is difficult to imagine how exactly can the West threaten Iran for supplying arms to Russia, since various sanctions have already been imposed against the Islamic Republic, and the set of instruments of influence is quite limited, although not yet exhausted.

For example, it is possible to find ways to finally crush Iran's oil and gas industry. Finally, there remains a direct threat to use military force, but hardly any Western country is ready for that now.

It should also be remembered that the US under Joe Biden was interested in reaching an understanding with Iran in one form or another. And first of all, Washington wants to demand guarantees from Tehran that it will stop its nuclear programme.

And for this, the US will lift some sanctions, and Iranian oil will be able to squeeze Russian oil on the market. Finally, the US will surely demand that Iran stop destabilising the Middle East.

Unfortunately, from my point of view, this will not achieve anything. Iran will promise anything, but it will not curtail its nuclear project or its expansion," the Israeli pundit stressed.

Therefore, according to Borodkin, another scenario is also possible, which would untie the hands of the West with regard to Tehran. This is if the current conservative Iranian leadership, through its stubbornness, still sabotages the deal. Then the US and its allies will be forced to tighten pressure on Tehran, possibly by threatening secondary sanctions against Asian states that are still cooperating with Iran in various areas.

“As for Israel, I believe that the Israeli government will continue to use various means to put the brakes on Iran's nuclear programme while strengthening security ties with Arab countries and Türkiye.

To effectively counter Iran, a broad Western-led coalition is needed to issue a tough ultimatum. But today this is unlikely, as the US is giving all its attention to other regions," Borodkin summarised.