Putin's opponents gather in Armenia How will Moscow react?

Armenia has again turned against its ally, Russia. It all started when accusations surfaced in the Armenian media blaming Moscow for organizing an explosion at Yerevan's Surmeli shopping centre. Russian Embassy in Armenia harshly responded to such accusations, but Yerevan didn't stop there and allowed holding an anti-Russian rally on the level of the Yerevan City Hall. Moreover, the rally will be held on August 24, as if to mark half a year since the beginning of the so-called Russian "special military operation" in Ukraine.

The Armenian media reports that the protest demonstration will be organized by oppositionists from the "Kovcheg" group, which left Russia and is funded by Mikhail Khodorkovsky, an ardent opponent of the Russian government. Note that the Anti-War Committee of Russia, created by oppositionists and public figures in exile, launched the "Kovcheg" project in March of this year. Among the founders of the Russian Anti-War Committee are former YUKOS head Mikhail Khodorkovsky, politicians Dmitry Gudkov, Garry Kasparov, Vladimir Kara-Murza, economists Sergey Guriev and Sergey Aleksashenko, historian Yuri Pivovarov, journalist Yevgeny Kiselev, businessmen Boris Zimin and Yevgeny Chichvarkin, and writer Viktor Shenderovich.

The event in Yerevan, as its organizers openly announced, is aimed "against the military special operation and for the resignation of the Russian head of state." The Mayor's Office of Yerevan must have been aware of the goals of the rally and the slogans that were to be used but gave its consent for the event nonetheless. Logically, Moscow will demand explanations and will remind Yerevan how an ally must behave. How this will be expressed is still a question.

Russian Council on Foreign Affairs expert Kamran Hasanov told Caliber.Az that Moscow will react with some kind of diplomatic note condemning the anti-Russian rally.

"It may happen in case the rally will be held on a large scale", he noted. - That is, if a couple of dozen marginal show up at the rally, Russia is unlikely to pay any attention to it. However, the signals through the closed-door channels alleging that the Armenian government turned a blind eye to anti-Kremlin demonstrations can not be ruled out. After all, the organizers of the protest rally are fugitives from Russia, who left the country to save their status. In other words, the initiators of the rally are mostly Russian citizens, but Armenians who blame Russia for the explosions in the Surmeli shopping centre can also join the rally. However, whatever it is, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan gave permission to hold such a rally for a reason. This looks very strange: Russia is Armenia's ally in the CSTO and EAEU, and an anti-Russian rally is held in Yerevan with the consent of the authorities."

When asked whether the anti-Russian hysteria in Armenia fits into the general context of the confrontation between Russia and the West, Hasanov said that the context is clear in the sense that Pashinyan is trying to balance between the West and Russia, but with an obvious bias towards the former.

"Armenia maintains normal relations with the leadership of Western countries, and they really need Yerevan to join the anti-Russian sanctions as well. The US Treasury Department even put Armenia on a certain list, threatening tough action if it indulges Moscow too much. Pashinyan, by giving permission for an anti-Russian event, thus showing his Western handlers that Armenia is a democratic country and it is not clinging to Russia. That is, the prime minister wants to maintain good relations with the West despite the fact that Armenia's ally is in conflict with it," the political analyst concluded.