Russia's Middle East strategy: Exploiting instability

An article by Foreign Affairs discusses Russia's strategic interests and concerns in the Middle East amidst escalating tensions between Israel, Iran, and their proxies. It highlights Russia's dual objectives of exploiting regional instability to weaken US influence while avoiding direct military entanglement.

According to the article, Russia's strategic interests in the Middle East are heavily influenced by the ongoing tensions involving Israel, Iran, and their respective allies. Moscow seeks to exploit regional instability to undermine US influence while navigating the complexities of avoiding direct military engagement.

The article highlights Russia's cautious approach, where it aims to benefit from escalating tensions that divert US resources and attention away from Ukraine. However, Moscow is wary of the potential consequences of a broader conflict in the region, which could adversely affect its allies such as Syria and Iran, disrupt military supply lines and strain regional diplomatic relations.

Russia's stance is characterized by a delicate balancing act. It seeks to maintain its influence through diplomatic manoeuvres and limited support for Iran's proxies, all while avoiding direct military confrontation with Israel or the United States. Moscow strategically positions itself to criticize US actions in the region while refraining from becoming entangled in a conflict that it cannot fully control.

One of Russia's primary concerns is the impact of Middle Eastern conflicts on its military assets and alliances. Syria, where Russia maintains crucial naval and air bases, holds significant strategic importance. Any escalation involving Israeli strikes on Syrian soil, targeting Iranian-backed positions, poses risks to Russian personnel and assets stationed there. Moscow carefully monitors developments to prevent its involvement from escalating beyond strategic support and electronic warfare measures.

Economically, Russia stands to gain from increased oil prices resulting from Middle Eastern conflicts, which could undermine US efforts to stabilize global fuel costs. However, the broader geopolitical implications, including potential nuclear proliferation risks if Iran feels compelled to develop nuclear weapons, are viewed with concern in Moscow.

Russia's diplomatic strategy in the region involves leveraging its relationships with both Iran and Gulf Arab states, maintaining a delicate balance that supports its broader geopolitical objectives. The Kremlin has benefited from diplomatic rapprochements between Gulf states and Iran, which have facilitated its alignment with anti-Western forces in the region.

In managing these dynamics, Russia positions itself as a critical player in the Middle East's geopolitical landscape. It supports Iran's proxies with weapons and non-military aid, conducts electronic warfare operations, and engages in diplomatic manoeuvres to influence outcomes without committing to direct military engagements.

Ultimately, while Russia benefits from instability that weakens US influence, it remains cautious about the potential fallout from a full-scale regional conflict. Moscow aims to maintain its strategic flexibility, ensuring it can navigate Middle Eastern tensions to achieve its broader global objectives without being drawn into a protracted and uncontrollable conflict.