Stockholm and Helsinki come to Ankara's bow Türkiye raises stakes in NATO

Last week the Swedish parliament approved changes to the constitution which will toughen anti-terrorism legislation. According to Euronews, the new regulations will restrict "the freedom of groups associated with terrorist activities".

Given that Ankara is still blocking the Scandinavian kingdom's entry into NATO, speculation that these changes to Sweden's basic law were made for Türkiye's are reasonable. All the more so because a number of facts confirm it.

Last week, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson promised during a visit to Turkey that his cabinet would tighten the fight against terrorism. Kristersson's remarks that Sweden views the PKK as a terrorist organisation, in principle, confirm the seriousness of Stockholm's intentions to pursue its stated goal. Kristersson made the statement in Ankara at a joint press conference with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which is a clear indicator of Türkiye's successful foreign policy, and on two fronts at once. Firstly, in the fight against international terrorism, and secondly, in the promotion of Türkiye's national interests in Europe, including within the North Atlantic alliance of which Stockholm is so keen.

As is well known, Sweden has for a long time provided a safe haven for members of organisations that have been labelled as terrorist not only by Ankara but also by Washington and Brussels. However, the situation changed significantly after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which in many ways pushed these two Scandinavian states (Sweden and Finland) to join NATO. However, Türkiye blocked their candidacies.

It should be noted that Finland and Sweden applied to join NATO on May 18. Earlier, on May 13, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan opposed the integration of Finland and Sweden into the organisation. Later (May 14), Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalın explained in an interview with Reuters that Türkiye "is not closing the doors of NATO to Sweden and Finland," but sees their accession as a problem for its national security.

The main obstacle to Ankara's agreement for Stockholm and Helsinki to join the military bloc is the residence in both countries of supporters of Kurdish terrorists and Gulenists, whom Ankara considers terrorists. Because of this, Stockholm tried to conduct some kind of bargaining with Ankara back in June this year, which included supplying weapons to Türkiye in return for its favour on the two countries joining NATO. Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde even said Sweden could lift the arms embargo on Türkiye if it dropped its objections to its membership in NATO.

"Sweden is the country with the strictest arms export regulations in the world, but some things related to foreign, security and defence policy may change if it becomes a NATO member," the Swedish minister was quoted by the Turkish website Ahval.

Another important detail. Whereas the Swedes previously assured that they would contribute to the security of NATO, including Türkiye (in the event Sweden joined the alliance), that rhetoric has now also changed. Türkiye is no longer conditioned on its acceptance of anyone's membership in NATO, but simply states its willingness to meet all of Ankara's conditions. This is an essential point, confirming the impeccable credibility of Türkiye and President Erdogan personally, both in NATO and in the international system of relations, which is especially valuable against the background of the globalisation of the most complex processes in the region and the world.

On the other hand, the support for Türkiye's interests in the controversial issue of Scandinavian membership of the alliance has also greatly contributed to NATO itself. It was also a strong enough argument for Türkiye's increasing role on the world stage. In June this year, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg when he met with the president of Finland during his visit to Finland, called Türkiye's security concerns justified. He argued that no other NATO member has experienced as many terrorist attacks as Türkiye, which gives credibility and heed to Türkiye's concerns.

Stoltenberg's stance, against the backdrop of NATO's increased efforts to expand its borders, is highly indicative of Turkey. At the very least, it clearly demonstrates the importance of Ankara for the alliance. In fact, the secretary general made similar statements in the run-up to the NATO summit in Madrid in June, warning Sweden and Finland that they would be unlikely to join the alliance unless they met Ankara's demands. And as later events have shown, the secretary general was right in his predictions. It is known that Türkiye has put forward 10 conditions for Sweden and Finland, under which Ankara will lift its veto on their membership in NATO. These concerns, in particular, the prohibition of the activities of organisations recognised as terrorists in Türkiye, as well as the lifting of restrictions on Ankara's defence industry. Given Sweden's willingness to comply with Türkiye's preconditions, the legislative changes in that country should come into force from January 1 next year.

As for the Finnish position, Finnish President Sauli Niinistö said back in June that his country would not join NATO separately from Sweden and would try to reach a consensus within the alliance.

"We were surprised by Türkiye's position, but in international politics, we have to take seriously what the other side says. That is what we will do. I hope we find a solution that satisfies everyone," Niinistö said.

The other day Turkish defence minister, Hulusi Akar, specifically told the Finnish Helsingin Sanomat newspaper that Türkiye expects Finland and Sweden to fulfill their obligations under the tripartite memorandum signed on the margins of the NATO summit in Madrid in June. The following fact from Hulusi Akar's speech is noteworthy, which he conveyed to Europe and NATO. He recalled that Türkiye is the only country of the alliance, which for many years has been simultaneously fighting a number of terrorist organizations and protecting the borders of Europe and the entire bloc, not only from the threat of terrorism but also from the influx of illegal migrants. But two years ago, Ankara refused to contain the flow of refugees and opened the border amid the escalating situation in the Syrian province of Idlib. The formal reason for Türkiye's withdrawal from its commitment to migrants was the death of 33 Turkish soldiers as a result of shelling by Syrian troops. In this way, President Erdogan once again demonstrated to the world the principled nature of his state policy, which was a de facto demarche towards Europe and NATO. Against the background of Ankara's tough diplomacy when it comes to the interests of statehood, Hulusi Akar's reminder that Finland, with its 1340 km long land border with Russia, would be entitled to seek help from the bloc's partners, including Türkiye, after joining the alliance is quite reasonable.

"Our country, together with other partners, will protect the borders of the Scandinavian countries, therefore, when Finland and Sweden ask Ankara to take on such responsibility, they themselves should treat with understanding the issues that concern the Turkish side. We expect Finland and Sweden to understand and implement the commitments made on the margins of the Madrid summit," the Turkish minister said, underlining however that Türkiye could approve Finland and Sweden's NATO applications before Türkiye's upcoming elections in 2023 if only those countries take the necessary steps immediately.

How soon Finland and Sweden will fulfill all of Ankara's conditions will be largely clarified by the upcoming meeting in Türkiye of the defence ministers of the alliance candidate countries, scheduled for early December. In the meantime, Sweden's admission that YPG (the Syrian wing of the PKK) terrorists are "organically, hierarchically and financially linked" to the terrorists of this organisation has added much optimism to the issue. Undoubtedly, Türkiye now expects similar statements from the Finnish side. Given Türkiye's high ratings, the likelihood that Stockholm and Helsinki come to bow to Ankara is quite high.