Stumbling path towards Germany's return to nuclear power

The future German government, led by Conservative Chancellor Friedrich Merz, is entering office amid uncertainty regarding the role of nuclear energy in the country’s energy policy. While rising energy costs are a pressing concern for citizens, Merz appears reluctant to fully embrace a return to nuclear power. He has ruled out reactivating decommissioned plants, stating they are in the process of being dismantled and decontaminated. Nevertheless, Merz has maintained a moratorium on further deconstruction, leaving the door open for future reconsideration, although not likely within his term.

The idea of revisiting nuclear energy was a central, albeit contentious, part of Merz’s pre-election promises. As an article by the Frankfurter Rundschau highlights, the CDU manifesto had pledged to explore restarting recently closed nuclear plants. However, this stance was notably absent from the coalition agreement that was recently agreed upon, signaling a continued commitment to the nuclear phase-out that began under former Chancellor Angela Merkel following the 2011 Fukushima nuclear plant disaster in Japan, which ended with the closure of the last three in 2023. The agreement only references investment in fusion energy, with the ambitious goal of building the world’s first fusion reactor in Germany—a project that would take decades to realize.

Despite the political hesitancy, public opinion on nuclear energy has actually shifted. A recent survey indicates that 55% of Germans now support re-entering nuclear power, while 36% remain opposed. This change in sentiment reflects concerns over energy security and affordability, especially in the wake of the war in Ukraine and the resulting energy crisis.

Germany's reliance on Russian energy, particularly gas, was a defining feature of its energy strategy during Merkel's tenure. The conflict in Ukraine and subsequent sanctions prompted a major pivot, ending German dependence on Russian pipeline gas. Although imports of Russian LNG have continued to some extent, the energy shock reopened discussions about diversifying energy sources—including nuclear.

This shift has significant implications for European energy politics. Germany’s potential reengagement with nuclear power would align it with France, another major pro-nuclear EU economy, thus strengthening the bloc advocating for nuclear energy within the EU. This could influence EU energy policy, particularly in framing nuclear as a "green" source eligible for clean energy incentives.

The European nuclear industry, represented by Nucleareurope, has welcomed recent EU proposals that adopt a "technology-neutral" stance in strategic documents such as the Clean Industrial Deal and the Action Plan for Affordable Energy. These plans could benefit both renewables and nuclear energy.

Still, Germany’s path back to nuclear energy is long and complex. It would require major investments, regulatory changes, and overcoming deeply ingrained anti-nuclear attitudes. The current economic landscape—marked by inflation and high energy prices—has shifted voter priorities from environmental concerns to cost-of-living issues.

As Germany works to reposition its economic and industrial model, nuclear energy may offer a strategic middle ground: addressing citizens' immediate economic needs while supporting long-term climate goals. The challenge for the Merz government will be balancing these competing demands and navigating the political and public resistance still surrounding nuclear power.

By Nazrin Sadigova