Europe’s air defence at risk as Patriot systems flow to Ukraine

A deal brokered under US President Donald Trump to quickly supply Patriot missile systems to Ukraine has triggered fears across Europe about potential gaps in their own air defence capabilities. The agreement hinges on how swiftly new Patriot batteries can be delivered to European NATO states, which have been urged to transfer some of their existing systems to Kyiv.

Several European countries, including Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania, and Spain, all operators of Patriot systems, initially expressed interest in the deal. They view Trump’s proposal—to expedite sales of new US-made systems to replace those donated to Ukraine—as a way to maintain critical air defence support for Ukraine while minimizing disruptions at home, Caliber.Az reports, citing foreign media.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has long called for more Patriots amid relentless Russian air attacks, recently stating he hopes to receive ten additional batteries. So far, Kyiv has received six operational Patriot batteries from the US, Germany, Romania, and the Netherlands, according to UK-based arms monitor Action on Armed Violence.

However, European arsenals have been depleted by prior donations, raising worries about lengthy gaps in their air defences if US deliveries are delayed. The global demand for Patriots far exceeds supply, with new orders facing wait times of several years and costs reaching around $1 billion per battery and $4 million per interceptor missile.

Germany, which has led recent donations, demanded “watertight” guarantees from Washington that new systems would arrive within eight months before sending more Patriots from its stockpiles, Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said.

Berlin recently confirmed it will receive priority delivery of new Patriots, allowing it to send more systems to Kyiv shortly. However, previous donations and deployments leave Germany with only about six Patriots remaining. Norway and the Netherlands have also committed to the deal.

US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker emphasized that the US is “looking at what we have available both in our possession and across our defence sector, and prioritising and making it available for the defence of Ukraine.” Trevor Taylor of the Royal United Services Institute added, “Decisions here lie with the president of the United States.”

Yet, delivery timelines remain uncertain. NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Transformation, Admiral Pierre Vandier, estimates a lead time of around seven years for new Patriots. Though some sources suggest a couple of years, long waits and production bottlenecks persist.

Lockheed Martin and Raytheon are increasing missile output from 500 to 650 annually. Raytheon’s spokesperson said the company “will increase monthly GEM-T interceptor production by 150% between now and 2028 to meet unprecedented demand,” while investing nearly $1 billion to secure critical materials and expand manufacturing capacity. However, supply chain challenges remain, particularly regarding energetics, the head of Raytheon’s Air Defence Systems division told Euractiv.

Romania, having sacrificed one of its two Patriot systems last year, faced a replacement timeline extending to the end of the decade, underscoring the difficulty in rapidly replenishing European air defences amid the ongoing conflict.

By Vafa Guliyeva