Sky News: Russia’s Oreshnik missile puts much of Europe within reach

Russia’s recent use of the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) in a large-scale strike on Ukraine has intensified concern far beyond the immediate battlefield, prompting renewed scrutiny of the broader security risks facing Europe and NATO, according to an analysis published by Sky News.

The nuclear-capable, hypersonic Oreshnik was fired at Lviv on 8 January during an extensive overnight assault on western, central and southeastern Ukraine. That wave of attacks involved 278 missiles and drones. Although the Oreshnik strike itself caused limited physical damage—hitting a workshop belonging to a state enterprise—the significance of the launch lies primarily in its strategic messaging.

Sky News notes that the missile’s reported range of up to 5,500 kilometres theoretically places much of Europe within reach. Its speed, estimated at Mach 10–11, further heightens its threat profile: the faster a missile travels, the less time air-defence systems have to detect, track and intercept it. Analysis by the Royal United Services Institute has previously suggested that an IRBM travelling at Mach 10 could reach the United Kingdom within 10 minutes if launched from western Russia.

Ukraine’s missile interception rate, once as high as 80 per cent, had dropped to 54 per cent shot down or suppressed by the final quarter of 2025. Hypersonic ballistic systems such as Oreshnik are designed specifically to push those interception rates even lower.

Some defence specialists have questioned whether Oreshnik is as advanced as President Vladimir Putin has claimed, arguing it may be a modified version of the RS-26 Rubezh IRBM. Nevertheless, Ukraine’s foreign minister Andrii Sybiha described the missile as a “grave threat” to European security.

That assessment reflects geography as well as capability. The strike occurred in Lviv, a city located roughly 40 miles from the Polish border. Poland has repeatedly faced provocations from Moscow, including a Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace in September 2025. The latest launch also brings the missile closer to NATO territory than its previous known use in November 2024, when it hit the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro.

Initial evaluations indicate that, as with the 2024 strike, the Oreshnik may have carried an inert, non-explosive warhead, limiting the immediate physical destruction. Yet defence analysts stress that Russia’s goal is to demonstrate the system’s capabilities—its speed, reach and ability to survive interception.

The timing is particularly pointed. Russia has recently revised its nuclear deterrence doctrine, lowering the threshold for a nuclear response, and has issued sharp warnings that any British or French military “units and facilities” stationed in Ukraine under a future peace agreement would be considered legitimate targets.

Given that Oreshnik is marketed as a missile capable of destroying fortified underground structures, the implications for both Ukrainian military infrastructure and NATO facilities are significant. President Putin has also indicated he intends to employ the missile with conventional warheads, suggesting it could appear more frequently in future Russian attacks.

For now, its rarity contributes to its symbolic weight. As Sky News concludes, Oreshnik is not merely a weapon used against Ukraine: it also serves as a broader warning from the Kremlin about what it views as Western interference.

While the most recent strike does not constitute an immediate military threat to NATO, it increases strategic tensions, highlights weaknesses in Western air defences and forces NATO governments to confront potential worst-case scenarios—reinforcing how directly the war in Ukraine intersects with Europe’s overall security architecture.

By Tamilla Hasanova