Sudan’s civil war: What’s the path forward?

The war in Sudan appears to be reaching a decisive phase after nearly two years of fighting that has claimed tens of thousands of lives, displaced millions, and fuelled famine.

In recent months, the military has been making steady gains against its rival, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), and now asserts control over the capital, Khartoum, including the landmark Republican Palace, Caliber.Az reports per foreign media.

However, the RSF has yet to acknowledge the reported setbacks.

While an end to the conflict remains distant, the latest developments could reshape the war.

The conflict erupted in April 2023 between the military and the RSF, igniting fierce battles in Khartoum and other regions. Initially, the leaders of both factions had been allies, tasked with overseeing Sudan’s democratic transition following the 2019 uprising that toppled former president Omar al-Bashir. However, they instead worked together to obstruct a return to civilian rule before turning against each other in a violent power struggle.

Since then, at least 28,000 people have been killed—although the true figure is likely far higher. More than 14 million people have been displaced, and parts of the country have been plunged into famine.

The military’s recent success in Khartoum is unlikely to bring the conflict to an end. Instead, it may mark the beginning of a new phase, with Sudan effectively divided into zones controlled by the military and the RSF.

Army chief General Abdel-Fattah Burhan has shown little interest in engaging in meaningful peace negotiations, while RSF leader General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo appears determined to continue fighting.

The RSF still maintains control over large swathes of western Sudan, particularly in the Darfur region. Meanwhile, the military’s coalition—comprising various armed factions, including former Darfur rebels and Islamist brigades—could face internal fractures, as its members are historical adversaries united solely in their opposition to the RSF.

Last month, the RSF and its allies signed a charter in Kenya’s capital, Nairobi, establishing what they called a “parallel government.” At the same time, Burhan has spoken of forming a transitional government, raising the prospect of rival administrations vying for legitimacy while their forces continue to battle—further entrenching Sudan’s de facto partition.

The RSF’s 16-page charter advocates for “a secular, democratic and decentralised state” and maintains Sudan’s “voluntary integrity of its territory and peoples”—a reference to the country’s numerous communities seeking autonomy from Khartoum.

The RSF evolved from the notorious Janjaweed militias, which were mobilised by al-Bashir’s government two decades ago to suppress ethnic groups in Darfur. The Janjaweed were accused of committing mass killings, sexual violence, and other atrocities.

In the ongoing war, the RSF has been accused of committing further atrocities. The Biden administration has imposed sanctions on Dagalo, stating that the RSF and its allied groups were engaged in genocide. The RSF denies these allegations. The military has also been accused of human rights violations, which it has denied.

By Aghakazim Guliyev