The critical phase of the Russo-Ukraine war How to spoil a military operation?

On December 25, the Russian Defense Ministry reported that its troops fully seized the eastern Ukrainian town of Maryinka, registering their first major success since the capture of the strategic city of Bakhmut in May 2023. In addition, the invading forces have expanded the area they controlled to the north and southwest of Avdiivka and on the north-eastern and southern outskirts of the town.

The capture of what has now become a ghost town just southwest of the Russian-held regional capital of Donetsk marked another significant milestone of Russia’s invasion campaign of Ukraine. Located five kilometres southwest of the Russian-occupied city of Donetsk, which has been under regular shelling attacks in recent months, Maryinka had a population of around 10,000 before Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

Russia's recent gain came amid Ukraine's decision to halt the counteroffensive against the Russian troops after poor results and significant casualties. Six months after Ukraine launched its summer counteroffensive to take back Russian-occupied territory in the east of the country, Kyiv’s forces have made little progress in the face of entrenched Russian resistance.

Russia’s defensive line — the largest and most fortified in Europe since World War Two — ultimately held, and early prospects of a Ukrainian breakthrough that would sever the land bridge between Russia and occupied Crimea have faded.

Throughout the spring, Kyiv had been amassing men and equipment to breach the defences its enemy had erected along some 1,000 kilometres of the frontline. Twelve brigades, comprising 35,000 soldiers, had been specially formed for this military manoeuvre.

As a result, European leaders are increasingly concerned by the stalemated war in Ukraine and with allies' struggles to keep ahead of new Russian arms production. Although not collectively, some European officials admitted that Russia has the capability and the ability to go on with this war for years.

Given Russia’s doubled production of arms and ammunition, European countries also announced plans to double production of ammunition, committing to send much of it to Ukraine as it struggles with thinning supplies from Western allies.

For example, on December 25, Vladimir Putin commissioned the newest ships into the fleet, demonstrating that the shipbuilding industry is thriving. The Admiral Golovko, a serial-produced frigate, is armed with Kalibr cruise missiles and was created with some of the most advanced technologies. Moreover, the Naro-Fominsk small rocket ship is able to carry out strikes with long-range cruise missiles.

However, official Kyiv aims to boost efforts to confront Russia despite the halted conventional military operations. In this regard, the head of Ukraine's SBU security service, Vasyl Malyuk, hinted at the idea of intensifying intelligence operations and conducting sabotage strikes deep in Russian-controlled territory next year to bring the war as close to the Kremlin as possible. Considering the previous sabotage operations, Russian logistics targets and military assets in occupied Ukrainian territory are likely to continue to be a focus.

Ukraine's willingness to strike deep inside Russia is a red line for some EU countries, such as Slovakia, Hungary, and France, as they believe it may trigger a more devastating response from nuclear power. Nevertheless, Kyiv demonstrates a commitment to ambushing Russian targets in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine.

For example, in October 2022, the SBU’s marine drones attacked Sevastopol Bay, damaging four Russian warships. This year, the drones hit two missile carriers, a tanker, and an amphibious assault ship and also damaged a large military tugboat and Russia's newest reconnaissance and hydrographic ship.

Indeed, the continuous sabotage operations against Russia would require additional funding of Ukraine by Western allies as the country's economy has been completely ruined since February 2022. Consequently, some countries like Germany proposed to provide Ukraine with frozen Russian assets.

As such, on December 20, Germany's top federal prosecutor announced a motion to confiscate about €720 million held by a Russian financial institution in a Frankfurt bank account. The motion represents an escalation of Germany’s efforts to sanction Russia. It's now up to the Frankfurt Higher Regional Court to rule whether Germany can ultimately confiscate the money.

The current phase of the Russo-Ukraine war is critical for Moscow and Kyiv as both exert tremendous efforts to exert more pressure and ensure a breakthrough, though unsuccessful. The situation looks more critical on Ukraine's end due to depleting resources and mounting human casualties, while Russia prefers to wait and abstain from large-scale operations to preserve stockpiles until the spring of 2024.