Trump’s struggle for peace deal The hard road ahead

In an article from The Economist, the magazine critically examines Donald Trump’s stalled efforts to end the war in Ukraine, a promise he made to resolve within days of taking office. As Trump’s first hundred days approach, the hoped-for ceasefire or peace deal has not materialised, with little progress toward a solution. Instead, his strategy, supported by vice-president J.D. Vance, seems to be edging closer to abandoning the process altogether.

The core of the American peace proposals circulating in Europe revolves around concessions that would effectively reward Russia’s aggression. These include formal recognition of Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, the promise that Ukraine will never join NATO, and lifting sanctions imposed on Russia following its 2014 and 2022 invasions. However, these proposals come without security guarantees for Ukraine, nor does the plan hinge on Russia’s adherence to specific commitments. The deal, as it stands, is essentially a ceasefire along current battle lines, relying on Russian President Vladimir Putin's goodwill, something critics argue is highly unreliable.

The proposals have been met with resistance from both Ukraine and Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has firmly rejected the notion of recognising Russia’s Crimean annexation, calling it a non-starter. Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, is scheduled to visit Moscow in hopes of securing Putin’s endorsement, but it remains unclear if this will succeed. Europe, while not publicly supporting the proposals, remains hesitant to undermine Ukraine, further complicating the diplomatic landscape.

If Trump walks away from these negotiations, significant questions loom. Would he halt military support to Ukraine, including arms supplies and intelligence-sharing? Would he unilaterally lift sanctions against Russia? Even more crucially, would he allow European countries to procure American weapons like Patriot air-defense systems for Ukraine’s defense? These uncertainties highlight the lack of clarity surrounding the future of America’s role in the Ukraine conflict and the broader geopolitical repercussions of Trump’s peace initiatives.

By Vugar Khalilov