Türkiye’s opposition party declares major victory in local elections Secular surge?

Türkiye’s main opposition party, the People's Republican Party (CHP), has made a significant stride by declaring nearly full victory over the ruling Justice and Progress Party (AKP) in the recent local elections.

This sweeping victory has seen the CHP take control of major cities like Istanbul, as well as Türkiye’s capital, Ankara, Izmir, Bursa, and Adana. This surge in support has pushed the CHP's nationwide backing to 37.4 percent, with more than 90 percent of the votes counted, marking a significant shift in Türkiye's political landscape.

The most popular CHP candidate, Ekrem Imamoglu, has secured his mayor position in Istanbul for another term, dealing a major blow to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's party and his candidate, Murat Kurum.

Erdogan had campaigned vigorously ahead of the municipal elections, which were seen as a gauge of both his support and the opposition's durability. The vote was a significant test of Erdogan's popularity as he sought to regain control of key urban areas he lost to the opposition in elections five years ago.

Thus, after a while, CHP repeatedly became the main opposition party following harsh defeat in presidential and parliament elections in May 2023. Moreover, Imamoglu demonstrated he could reach across the deep socio-political divisions that define Türkiye’s opposition electorate even without their institutional support.

With 85% of the vote counted in Istanbul, Imamoglu was more than 10 points ahead of his rival from the Islamist-rooted AKP Murat Kurum. In the capital, Ankara, the CHP's Mansur Yavas, on 59%, was so far ahead of his AKP rival in his bid for re-election that he declared victory with less than half of the votes counted.

In light of the recent results, newly re-elected Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu has emerged as the main challenger to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s reign. Imamoğlu’s success is due to his ability to broaden the social democratic CHP’s appeal to attract more conservative voters. It marked the worst defeat for Erdogan and his AKP in their more than two decades in power as Erdogan called it a "turning point" in a post-midnight address.

Having won last year’s parliamentary and presidential elections, Erdogan, Turkey’s leader since 2003, will now not have to face another major poll until 2028. That gives his government plenty of time to counter any sustained resurgence of a re-energized opposition and consolidate power. Therefore, there is no guarantee that the opposition CHP will be able to repeat its current success in the 2028 presidential elections, even with the charismatic Imamoglu spearheading a revival.

Addressing crowds gathered at AKP headquarters in Ankara, Erdogan said his alliance had "lost altitude" across the nation and would take steps to address the message from voters. The president’s disappointing showing could signal a change in the major emerging economy’s divided political landscape.

Under Erdogan’s rule, Türkiye’s role as a regional and international power broker has grown substantially, even as he has become increasingly intolerant of dissent, and the election results were watched closely across the Middle East and around the world.

As he secured another five-year term in office in May 2023, Erdogan nonetheless commands a large and loyal base of supporters, which he tried to bolster this year through a rapid rollout of economic appeasements — including tax relief, cheap mortgage loans, energy subsidies, and pledges to not raise road and bridge tolls.

Several factors contributed to the AKP's failure to secure critical positions in the recent elections. For example, the country has been wrestling with sky-high inflation for several years, and according to official figures, prices are still rising by 67 per cent a year.

As such, conservative voters punished the AKP at the ballot box for the cost-of-living crisis. During the post-election speech, President Erdogan vowed to press ahead with an economic program introduced last year that aims to combat inflation.

The March 31 local elections have sent shockwaves through the ruling AKP and its entire establishment while sparking optimism among the secular opposition. The public's support for the CHP has raised hopes that these elections may herald significant changes within Türkiye's political landscape, adding a sense of anticipation to the current political climate.