Ukraine's counter-offensive operation is now a matter of time The Art of War

More than a year after Russia launched an invasion campaign of Ukraine, the war is also being fought on Russian soil, with local authorities scrambling to protect its borders. The war Russia expected to win quickly now encroaches daily on the lives of its citizens, with frequent reports of fires, drone attacks and shelling.

Every day, a new tactical strike is delivered where it is the least expected, adding to the demoralization of Russian forces and the confusion of the top brass. Some of these strikes are merely psychological operations; others—such as the naval drone attack on the Ivan Khurs intelligence collection ship in the Black Sea underline a progressive failure of Russian deterrence posturing.

Ukraine and its citizens, of course, are bearing the overwhelming brunt of suffering in the war. More than 8,000 civilians have been killed, according to the United Nations. Millions are displaced; whole cities have been reduced to rubble.

Nevertheless, official Kyiv reportedly continued to conduct sabotage operations against Russia with frequent incursions ahead of the upcoming major counter-offensive operation. As such, in May 2023, the drone strike on the Kremlin appeared to be a daring stunt aimed at spoiling the elaborate Victory Day parade and forcing President Vladimir Putin to pretend to be unworried.

Although Kyiv denied involvement in the drone attack on the Kremlin, the US intelligence reports suggested that it was likely orchestrated by one of Ukraine’s special military units. However, the level of confidence that the Ukrainian government directly authorized the Kremlin drone attack is “low”.

However, the sabotage operations of Ukraine against Russia are not limited to drone attacks, with the growing number of incursions of small armed groups into Russian territories. Between April and May 2023, there were more than five registered incursions into Russia’s Belgorod and Bryansk regions. Russian President Vladimir Putin blamed Ukrainian "terrorists" for the incursion, claiming they deliberately targeted civilians, including children, in "yet another terror attack, another crime."

On May 23, the Ukrainian forces conducted the most serious infiltration operation in Belgorod since the war unfolded. The incursion occurred far from the epicentre of fighting in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region and around 160 km from the front lines in the northern Kharkiv region.

The operation forced Russia to deploy helicopters, jets and artillery units to thwart the Ukraine-trained anti-Kremlin insurgent groups. Moreover, some villages have been evacuated, several schools in the area have switched to online classes, and government social media pages are often flooded with pleas from unsettled residents asking to protect them from hostilities.

Three Russian frontline regions—Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod—are increasingly coming under Ukrainian attacks and strikes, some of which are quite indiscriminate, and the Russian command must now allocate greater resources toward the task of countering a no longer improbable full-scale enemy offensive in this vulnerable direction.

Indeed, the Russian-Ukrainian border is vast and very difficult to control, making it ripe for smuggling – something the Ukrainians have been doing for the better part of the decade that they have been at war with pro-Russian forces.

Since the start of the war, Ukrainian intelligence has successfully conducted a series of operations within Russia in an attempt to build a spy network consisting of mainly Ukraine sympathizers. In this context, the Western intelligence reports also confirm allegations that most of the drone attacks inside Russia were perpetrated by local agents.

However, it is unclear whether other drone attacks carried out recently – including one targeting a residential neighbourhood near Moscow and another strike on oil refineries in southern Russia – were also launched from inside Russia or conducted by this network of pro-Ukrainian operatives. The attacks have not caused widespread damage to military assets but serve to demoralize Russian forces.

Notably, Russia is unable to take the situation under control despite vast human resources and much stronger fire superiority. The frequent incursions, sabotage operations, and drone attacks on state facilities may force Russia to announce a new round of mobilization, causing anxiety and worry in society.

The most recent destroyed dam of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant on the River Dnipro in the Kherson region may be a sign of Russia's growing anxiety ahead of the upcoming major counter-offensive of Ukraine. While Moscow may seek to destroy Ukrainian settlements by destroying the dam, the move will likely cause ecocide.

Notwithstanding Russia's response, the situation in the frontline will unlikely shift in favour of Moscow, as Kyiv has long been preparing for the counter-offensive operation, and such provocations will barely push Ukraine back.