Ukraine’s military reshuffle may boost optimism at home and in West Revisiting Total War Strategy

On February 11, Russia launched 45 drones over Ukraine in a five-and-a-half-hour barrage and hit mostly civilian infrastructure in the central part of the country. However, the Ukrainian Air Force said it had shot down 40 of the Iranian-made Shahed drones over nine different regions, including on the outskirts of the country’s capital, Kyiv.

While the drone strikes keep inflicting human and infrastructure damage on Kyiv, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky conducted a surprise move by revamping the country’s military.

As such, the long-time chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and a popular public figure, General Valeri Zaluzhny, was dismissed after a controversial success in the counter-offensive against Russia.

With a separate decree, General Oleksandr Syrsky assumed his role as Ukraine's top military commander. Reports first surfaced in November 2023 about disagreements between Zelensky and Zaluzhnyi shortly after the latter’s statement during the interview with the Economist.

According to Zaluzhnyi, the war in Ukraine may become a prolonged war, which allegedly stirred President Zelensky’s discontent. Zaluzhny's successor, General Syrsky, played a key role in some of Ukraine’s biggest victories in its war with Russia, including overseeing the successful defence of the capital in the early days of the invasion.

Syrskyi’s battlefield successes have earned the backing of his soldiers, who have been locked in grinding battles for two years. Moreover, Syrsky was the main mastermind behind the repelling attempts of “conquering Kyiv” in the early weeks of the war when Russian elite forces conducted a blitzkrieg operation from two directions but were trapped and destroyed.  

After groundbreaking success around Kyiv, Syrsky led a successful counter-offensive operation to liberate Kharkiv from the Russians, which was the most significant Ukrainian victory in the war and enabled Kyiv to retake the cities of Kupiansk and Izium from the Russians.

However, unlike success in Kharkiv, Kyiv, and Izium, Syrsky's actions in organizing the defence of Bakhmut town because of the high losses suffered by Ukrainian forces. But the tactic to pin Russian forces in the strategically insignificant salt-mining town also exhausted Russian troops and resources, sapping their ability to forge major breakthroughs elsewhere.

In the wake of the critical situation in the frontline and stalemate in military operations, concerns arose in Ukraine and the Western countries about whether Kyiv would be able to mobilize forces and liberate the eastern part of the country with minimal losses, even though Kyiv's military resources are depleting significantly.

Western military analysts have suggested that 2024 will be a rebuilding year for Ukraine, and General Syrsky will need to figure out how best to employ soldiers to hold back Russian offensives while generating new and effective fighting forces. In this vein, President Zelensky’s decision to reshuffle the military cabinet seems rational as heating debates regarding military aid to Ukraine in the US and Europe may dramatically affect the ongoing critical partnership with Ukraine.

For example, Republican lawmakers in the United States are withholding war funds for Ukraine while demanding, among other things, that Kyiv – and the Biden administration – articulate just how the war against Russia might be won.

Incoming commander-in-chief Syrskyi has signaled that his immediate goals include improving troop rotation at the front lines and harnessing the power of new technology at a time when Kyiv’s forces are largely on the defensive. Despite the set goals, it is getting harder for Ukraine to use modern technology as a critical tool against Russia, as recent reports suggest that the Russian forces are now using Starlink on the front line in occupied Ukraine.

Recent visual evidence shows that Russia has become more skilled at evading sanctions, often importing Western-made defence products via third countries. Therefore, President Zelensky has no option other than to introduce changes in an effort to boost optimism at home and in the West regarding Kyiv's chances to win this brutal war.

Nevertheless, without enough de-mining equipment and vehicles, Ukrainian forces have sometimes had to resort to going out with ropes and grappling hooks that troops pull across fields.

In this context, if the military aid from the US and NATO partners dwindles, Russia could see an opportunity for a new massive offensive to regain those territories liberated by Kyiv during 2022 and 2023. Consequently, Ukraine desperately needs additional training and anti-mine equipment – as well as long-range arms to harass Russian forces as it could help Ukraine punch through Russian defences and put itself in a stronger negotiating position.