Uncertainty surrounds Russian naval presence in Syria as rebel forces advance

As of December 6, Russian forces have yet to evacuate their naval base in Tartus, Syria, but it remains unclear whether Russia intends to maintain its vessels there as Syrian rebels continue to make significant advances across regime-held territories.

Thord Are Iversen, a former Norwegian Navy officer and independent OSINT analyst, reported that recent satellite imagery from December 6 indicates that several Russian naval vessels, including the Novorossiysk Kilo-class submarine, a Gorshkov-class frigate, the Admiral Grigorovich-class frigate, and possibly the Vyazma Kaliningradneft-class oiler, have returned to the port in Tartus, Caliber.Az reports citing the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

However, satellite imagery collected on December 3 revealed that Russia had removed its naval ships—such as the Admiral Grigorovich frigate, the Novorossiysk submarine, the Admiral Gorshkov and Admiral Golovko Gorshkov-class frigates, as well as the Vyazma oiler and Yelnya Altay-class oiler—between December 1 and 3.

On December 3, the Russian Ministry of Defence confirmed that ten Russian naval vessels, including the Admiral Gorshkov and Admiral Golovko frigates, and the Novorossiysk submarine, participated in missile launch exercises in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. Russian Chief of the General Staff, Army General Valery Gerasimov, had informed the US about these exercises during a call on November 27. It remains uncertain whether the Admiral Grigorovich frigate and the oilers were removed from Tartus as part of this exercise, and some of the ships that were withdrawn between December 1 and 3 have not yet returned to the port.

Russia apparently relocated its air defense systems in Masyaf to the coastal city of Latakia. pic.twitter.com/Ix1a8FNjLa

— Clash Report (@clashreport) December 6, 2024

In a related development, Bloomberg reported on December 6 that a source close to the Kremlin stated that Russia does not have a plan to save Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and is unlikely to develop such a plan, especially as pro-regime forces continue to abandon their positions. The Russian Embassy in Syria also announced on December 6 that Russian citizens living in Syria should leave the country on commercial flights due to the "difficult military and political situation" in Syria. The future of Russia’s naval presence in Tartus remains uncertain, with questions surrounding whether Russia plans to keep these vessels in Syria or evacuate them elsewhere.

Russia also appears to be redeploying some of its air defense assets that were previously stationed to protect Russia’s Khmeimim Air Base in Syria. Geolocated footage from December 6 shows Russian forces transporting S-300 or S-400 and Tor-M1 air defence systems near Baniyas, along the M1 Lakatia-Tartus highway. A Russian milblogger, also reporting on December 6, claimed that the footage shows Russian forces moving an S-400 system and a Tor-M2 system previously deployed near Masyaf (roughly 50 kilometers southeast of Khmeimim Air Base) in 2017 to protect the air base.

The milblogger suggested that the air defence systems are being redeployed to either Khmeimim Air Base or Tartus, possibly in response to the recent capture of Hama City by Syrian rebel groups. It remains unclear whether these air defense systems are being relocated within western Syria to enhance their survivability or if they are being moved for evacuation purposes via Tartus.

As the situation in Syria evolves, Russia’s military strategy in the region remains under close scrutiny.

By Vafa Guliyeva