“We will not agree with all Armenians” Historian on Caliber.Az

Caliber.Az interview with Azerbaijani historian, political expert Nariman Aliyev.

- In your opinion, are Armenia and the people of Armenia ready to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan? Can ethnic Armenians in Karabakh accept Azerbaijan’s rule? If so, why do we not hear at least individual voices of ordinary Karabakh people? Are they really all hostages of a bunch of separatists, who run Khankandi, or maybe, Armenian propaganda influenced them that way?

- The Armenian society is very polarized, and this is caused by the trauma of defeat in the 44-day war, which threatened the very existence of the Armenian state, and put forward existential questions before the Armenian society. Speaking about the Armenian society, I mean the citizens of Armenia living on the territory of the republic. The fact is that we will never come to an agreement with the entire world Armenians, because the Armenians are a global nation and within the framework of the entire Armenians there are many sub-ethnic groups belonging to different currents of Christianity.

For example, in Lebanon, there are Maronite Armenians, Armenians who are followers of the Armenian Catholic Church, and Evangelical Armenians, contrary to our stereotype that all Armenians profess Gregorianism. Armenians also speak different dialects of the Armenian language - Eastern Armenian and Western Armenian. They have been living in the territories of various states for centuries, they all have a different background, different historical experience. Again, the Armenians, who lived in the USSR, on the territory of the former Russian empire, and the Armenians, who lived in Lebanon or emigrated to the United States or France, are completely different people. Yes, they are all united by a single national myth, but it is impossible to agree with them all at once.

First, because people living on the territory of the Republic of Armenia and who have experienced the existential threats of the latest war are more inclined to negotiate, concessions than Armenians living several thousand kilometers away and showing special “activity” and “courage” in the social networks. In addition, Soviet Armenians have had experience of living side by side with Azerbaijanis at least since the signing of the Turkmanchay Treaty. They link their future to the South Caucasus region, which is historically multi-ethnic and where neighboring villages can be inhabited by representatives of different nationalities. And this ethnic mosaic is the wealth of our region.

I apologize for unfolding this panorama of Armenians, but I want readers or listeners, who sometimes encounters diametrically opposed opinions of Armenians on the Internet, understand where such differences in visions of the situation and the future comes from. We must, of course, take into account the degree of influence of the Diaspora, the Armenian diaspora, on the Republic of Armenia, seriously study the centers of power in this diaspora - these are quite competitive structures, including for influence in Armenia, for control over cash flows. But we need to negotiate first of all with the Armenian state, with the people living on the territory of Armenia, and these people, in my opinion, are ready for such a dialogue and understand the inevitability of a long-term peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

As for the ethnic Armenians of the Karabakh economic region of Azerbaijan, this is a completely different question. With the state of Armenia, taking into account, of course, the factor of victory in the 44-day war, we are building horizontal and mirror relations, while relations with the inhabitants of Karabakh of Armenian nationality should be vertical. And this is a big difference, first of all, in the legal basis of these relationships, and then in quantitative terms.

Because, according to optimistic estimates, there are several tens of thousands of Armenians in Karabakh, and despite their small number, there are different opinions even there. And even there, it is connected with what centers of power these groups rely on. And in the media, we see completely antithetical opinions - from the conditionally Russian project of Ruben Vardanyan, who stubbornly torpedoes the integration of Armenians into Azerbaijani society, to Samvel Babayan, who comes up with theses more and more loyal to us.

But we also see how pro-Pashinyan media are trying to promote Samvel Babayan, because everyone in Armenia understands perfectly well that the integration of Armenians into Azerbaijani society is inevitable. It is just that people like Vardanyan want to slam the door loudly in order to have some grounds for a political career in Yerevan later.

Why are we not hearing voices of ordinary Karabakh people? Despite the fact that in the West, they are trying to present the Armenian-populated part of Karabakh as a kind of stronghold of democracy, in reality, a tough separatist dictatorship reigns there - they even issued laws prohibiting any disagreement with their "party" line. And now in Karabakh, they are imprisoned right and left. That is, the Karabakh Armenians live in fear, expecting, on the one hand, the punitive actions of the military junta of the separatists, and, on the other hand, possible military operations by Baku.

We understand that the Azerbaijani soldier will never commit atrocities, murders, ethnic cleansing, and these ordinary Armenian peasants are being frightened with just such a scenario. And if, after the signing of the Trilateral Statement of 2020, the Karabakh Armenians still relied on Russian peacekeepers, then after Operation Retribution, after Farrukh and the liberation of the Sarybaba height, they came to the conclusion that there is no hope for them.

- Today, they often say that Armenia is hastily changing course from pro-Russian to Western, to Europe and the United States, changing shoes on the go, changing the “owner” and “roof”, which clearly used to be Russia. However, there is an opinion that this is just such a well-thought-out move of Pashinyan's political game, and he does exactly as much as Moscow allows him to. But now Pashinyan is bolstering ties with power centers in the US and Europe, with the support of which he came to power. And it is clear that the CIA director's visit to Yerevan was not just a courtesy visit. So, what is the vector of politics that Yerevan adheres to today, with whom is it - with the West, Russia, or with whom else?

- In my opinion, the Armenian establishment understands that the signing of a peace treaty is in the interests of the state. In order to secure the very 29,743 square kilometers indicated in the Almaty Declaration. But still, Nikol Pashinyan is trying in every possible way to delay the signing of the peace treaty: in strategic terms - until the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war, in tactical terms - until local elections, for example, the mayor of Yerevan. And therefore, I associate this whole new wave of Armenian political provocations in the international arena with the upcoming elections, as well as with the participation in the negotiations of external actors, in particular France and Russia, which, in my opinion, are acting together and trying to disrupt the signing of a peace treaty.

And in general, I would put the question a little bit differently. The fact is that a change of elites is taking place in Armenia now. After the First Karabakh War in the 1990s and the shooting of the Armenian parliament in 1999, the Karabakh clan ruled there for many years, which completely relied on Moscow.

Now, a new generation of politicians is gaining ground in the Armenian government, who want to receive and consolidate their political guarantees in the West. But globally, Yerevan is not going anywhere, because its economic viability is closely connected with Russia. Especially recently, when Armenia has become an important center for parallel exports to Russia.

Now I am not only talking about semiconductors that are used in the Russian military-industrial complex, but much more widely, because the sanctions have also affected the civilian sector. Double-digit indicators of the Armenian economy are due to parallel exports, and this is not the opinion of the Azerbaijani expert community, but an assessment voiced by the Russian president at a meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Council, which the Armenian prime minister nodded approvingly. And this is the main propaganda tool of the current government - they say, the economy is the field of activity where we are effective.

Armenia today is trying to be a kind of window to the world for Russia and Iran in the hope that its lobbying capabilities will shield the country from possible sanctions. Therefore, this is not a departure from Moscow, but an attempt to diversify its policy and benefit from all centers of power.

I attribute the same visit of the American intelligence services to the fact that Yerevan is trying to make itself into a kind of regional "Casablanca". After all, everyone knows that the US embassy in Armenia more likely performs the functions of the US embassy in Iran. Also, the IRGC is actively working in Armenia, along with the FSB, the GRU. So, Pashinyan's attempt to make his country that very Casablanca may end differently - Armenia risks becoming a second Syria.

- And what is the role of Russia in the South Caucasus in this regard? Is it possible to trust Moscow at least in some way, given the double game played by Russian peacekeepers covering the Karabakh separatists?

- If we talk about trust, then it is worth remembering that there is simply no such concept in political discourse. After the defeat of Napoleon in Europe and after the defeat of the Qajar state that relied on France, Russia single-handedly ruled in the South Caucasus. Only for a short time, the situation changed at the time of the collapse of the Russian empire at the beginning of the XX century and at its end, when the collapse of the Soviet Union already occurred. The acquisition of economic independence by Azerbaijan marked the withdrawal of Russia from the region, and its victory in the 44-day war and the signing of the Shusha Declaration institutionalized these processes. Well, the events in Ukraine, in my opinion, will finally neutralize the Russian military presence in the South Caucasus.

If you ask yourself what course Baku should follow, then I would not advise anything, because President Ilham Aliyev has built a very complex architecture of relations between Azerbaijan and Russia, very strong, but at the same time very elastic.

Contradictions between the parties never go to the media plane, and this is greatly appreciated in Moscow, because Azerbaijan always defends its interests, but never lets Russia lose face. And the main thing, in my opinion, in these relations is not even trust, but predictability. Trust is akin to recklessness, and when you are in such an aggressive environment, you cannot be reckless. Of course, Russia is doing everything possible to maintain its presence in the South Caucasus.

But our strategic goal is to get rid of any foreign military presence in our country by 2025. At the same time, with regard to the South Caucasus, as far as I understand, we are not opposed to Russia expanding its influence in Zangazur and fulfilling the ninth point of the Trilateral Statement of November 10, 2020 on the unhindered movement of goods and all types of transport from the western regions Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan.

- What could be the outcome of Russia's war in Ukraine? Many world experts are constantly thinking about this, but geopolitics in the South Caucasus also depend on it.

- As for the war in Ukraine, I think that no matter how optimistic the forecasts of Kyiv experts are, the Ukrainians, alas, will not be able to reach the 1991 border. And the collective West, as far as I understand, does not set such a goal. It is impossible to win a modern war without total air dominance, and until Ukraine gets F-16s, not to mention, the more modern fifth generation machines, hundreds of 4+ generation military aircraft are needed for total air dominance. Also, until Ukraine receives accurate and long-range weapons, a turning point in this war is not expected.

Moreover, we see how pressure on Zelenskyy is growing in the Western media, informational noise about the failures of the counteroffensive of Ukraine. It is obvious that this topic has become boring in Western society. In addition, the pre-election hysteria will soon begin in the United States, and accordingly, Ukraine will attract less and less attention in the West. But we can confidently say that an unequivocal victory for Russia in this war is also impossible.

The borders of NATO and Russia have almost doubled, the entire economic base of the Russian Federation, based on the sale of hydrocarbons to the richest market in the world, has been undermined, the transport and logistics significance of the country as a bridge between Europe and Asia has been nullified. Moscow has lost the opportunity to dominate Europe and therefore is trying to unite the Global South around itself, but in this it is losing leadership to China. And this ambiguous position of the Russian Federation increases the subjectivity of the countries of the South Caucasus.

- And what geopolitical game - in the region, in the Middle East, with Azerbaijan - is Iran currently playing? How potentially dangerous is Tehran for Baku, and is a military clash between Iran and Azerbaijan possible over Armenia?

- It should be assumed that any threat is a priori a danger, especially if it is such an unpredictable actor as Iran, which builds its policy not on the basis of pragmatism, but on some pseudo-phantom pains for the lost empire, to which the current Iran has nothing to do. In general, it should be noted that Iran is a controversial national project, which in its basis excludes the Azerbaijani national project.

Therefore, Iran is the number one threat for us today. We see that Tehran is trying to activate its proxies on the territory of our country. However, the Shusha Declaration, as well as the Baku-Tel-Aviv-Ankara triangle, which is strengthening today, is an obstacle to its more active actions. And about the red lines. Is the murder of an employee of the Azerbaijani embassy not a crossing of red lines? Is the recent violation of the Azerbaijani border by Iranian warplanes noy a crossing of our red lines?

And what about the transfer of militants to Karabakh under the guise of builders? There is also information about the transfer of Shahed drones to Armenia and other extremely aggressive actions of Iran, which cannot go unnoticed in Baku. But as far as I understand, the next few years Tehran's attention will be diverted to the Iran-Afghan and Iran-Pakistan borders. And here there is a difficult moment: Pakistan is our closest ally, and we have established relations with the Taliban since the evacuation of the Kabul airport.

- Are Washington and Brussels really committed to creating sustainable peace in the South Caucasus?

- Yes, today the United States, represented by Blinken, and Brussels, represented by Charles Michel, are active moderators of the negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. And this, of course, is based on the interest of the West in the stability of the South Caucasus and in the growing transport and energy importance of our country. But the United States is the world hegemon, and we are far from being in the first place among their interests. And this is the reason for the paradoxical contradictions in US policy in our region.

On the one hand, Washington has become the main platform for meetings between representatives of Armenia and Azerbaijan, where the foreign ministers of the two countries are substantively negotiating for several days. And usually distinguished only by thoughtless, one-sided pro-Armenian statements, Mrs. US Ambassador to Yerevan Christina Quinn suddenly published a peacekeeping post on Twitter: “Armenians will be able to live in safety as part of Azerbaijan,” which was assessed positively by our side. However, the uncontrolled activities of such individuals as Bob Menendez, James McGovern, Adam Schiff, who are at the mercy of the Armenian organizations ANCA and AAA, do not benefit the peace process and negatively affect bilateral relations between the US and Azerbaijan.

Moreover, there are suspicions that certain circles in Washington are also behind the initiative of the upcoming emergency meeting of the UN Security Council. If a unilateral statement, or worse, a resolution, is adopted under the US chairmanship, then it will be possible to say goodbye to Washington as a platform for negotiations, and this will definitely bring the counter-terrorist operation in Karabakh closer.

- What stimulates France for its toxic policy for the South Caucasus? How dangerous is it for the region and do Baku and Ankara succeed in replaying the moves of Paris and what can we expect from it in the future?

- As for France, it is worth noting that it is present wherever there is Britain. And Britain is represented in Azerbaijan quite widely - for example, by BP and other oil-related companies. In addition, France, as a Mediterranean country, is trying to dominate this region, namely the Eastern Mediterranean, and here its interests intersect with Turkish ones.

Paris has been trying to level the importance of Turkey in the region for several centuries and uses the Armenian factor as its tool. But France is a fading and currently extremely ineffective force. The main leitmotif of the policy of Paris is its shameful departure from Africa. One could, of course, say that if France fails to lead even in the countries of its historical dominance, then in the South Caucasus region it has nothing to catch at all. But even here not everything is clear.

Yes, France supports Armenia because it needs the votes of French Armenians, and yes, it is in a situational alliance with Russia and Iran, which prevents Baku from pursuing its policy in the region. But at the same time, Azerbaijan has active economic and significant military ties with it, and this should not be discounted either. Baku once bought hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of weapons from France, cooperates with Paris in the space sector, in particular, receives information from French satellites.

By the way, during the 44-day war, we regularly received all the necessary information from France. And the largest French company Total has been present in Azerbaijan for more than thirty years. So, not everything is lost in this sense, and such temporary workers as Emmanuel Macron do not live long in the political sense, and we have every chance to improve relations with France.