Will Marxist nationalism endure or fade in post-Xi China?

The article from Foreign Policy explores the potential future of China's ideological direction following President Xi Jinping's eventual departure from the political scene. While Xi's leadership appears stable for the time being, the article emphasizes the need to consider the long-term implications of his policies and the ideological landscape he has shaped.

The author suggests that Xi's brand of "Marxist nationalism," characterized by leftist political and economic reforms coupled with a nationalistic foreign policy, could either evolve into a more extreme form under younger loyalists or fade away, reminiscent of the decline of Maoism post-1976. A crucial factor in this transition will be the timing of Xi's exit and the ideological alignment of his successors, particularly those who have been educated under his regime.

Xi's party rectification campaigns, aimed at combating corruption and instilling ideological rigour, reflect his distrust of officials from previous generations. His desire to maintain power until a new generation of leaders, moulded by his ideological vision, can take over underscores the complexities of succession planning. The article also highlights the geopolitical context, particularly regarding Taiwan, which could significantly impact Xi's legacy. A swift and successful unification with Taiwan could cement Xi's position, while a military defeat could threaten the legitimacy of the regime itself.

The dynamics within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) are characterized by a historical oscillation between conservative and reformist ideologies. The article suggests that internal forces of self-correction may emerge after Xi's departure, similar to previous political transitions in China's history. Despite Xi's efforts to recruit younger, nationalistic cadres to safeguard his ideological legacy, he may face significant resistance from entrenched political inertia and the natural tendency of the party to revert to centrist policies.

Ultimately, the author posits that if Xi cannot extend his leadership into his 90s, the post-Xi era is likely to witness a correction toward a more moderate ideological stance. This shift could be driven by the increasing discontent with Xi's policies and a desire for a more balanced approach to governance. As the world grapples with the challenges posed by Xi's era, the focus should be on managing relations through deterrence and diplomacy to avoid crisis and conflict, which would have far-reaching consequences for global politics.

In conclusion, the future of China’s ideological landscape remains uncertain, influenced by both Xi's actions and the inherent dynamics within the CCP. The potential for a significant ideological shift following Xi’s departure raises important questions about China's domestic and international trajectory.