What Africa wants from the next US president

An article by Foreign Policy sheds light on African leaders’ perspectives regarding the upcoming US presidential election and the geopolitical implications of each candidate’s approach.

As Africa’s strategic importance grows, especially with its rapidly expanding population, significant natural resources, and pivotal role in the green energy transition, the continent seeks a US foreign policy that reflects a deeper, consistent partnership rather than reactive engagement focused solely on security threats. The article outlines African priorities across several key areas, including trade, security, immigration, energy, and public health, and examines how Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, the frontrunners in the US election, might address these issues.

Historically, Africa has been sidelined in US foreign policy discussions, largely viewed through a security lens rather than as an equal trade partner or a region with unique development needs. This approach left room for other global powers like China and Middle Eastern nations to increase their influence by investing in Africa’s infrastructure and development. Although the Biden administration has initiated projects like the Lobito Corridor to boost African trade infrastructure, critics argue that these efforts come too late to counter China’s foothold and may not adequately address African needs. Harris, if elected, would likely continue Biden's policy direction, marked by support for initiatives like the African Continental Free Trade Area and the African creative industries. However, Trump’s past policies indicate he may adopt a more aggressive military stance focused on counterterrorism, potentially sidelining humanitarian assistance and development.

The article emphasizes the stark differences in immigration policy between the candidates. Under Trump, restrictions such as the immigration ban on six African countries and reduced H-1B visas, created a hostile environment, discouraging skilled migration from Africa. In contrast, Harris supports skilled migration, which aligns with African leaders’ goals to alleviate unemployment at home by exporting talent. African countries face a brain drain of skilled workers to the US and Europe, and leaders in countries like Kenya and Egypt favour policies that facilitate their citizens’ emigration to stimulate remittances and foreign currency reserves.

On energy, African leaders have voiced a desire to expand grid electricity through fossil fuel projects to meet local demands, a stance that could align more with a Trump administration, given his past support for fossil fuels and rejection of the Paris Agreement. Harris is expected to continue Biden’s clean energy investments in Africa, but such policies often align more with the interests of African civil society rather than government leaders who prioritize immediate economic growth through traditional energy sources.

The article further outlines the challenges in health diplomacy, particularly concerning the future of PEPFAR, the HIV/AIDS relief program established under President George W. Bush. Trump’s policies threatened PEPFAR funding by reinstating the Mexico City policy, which prohibits foreign aid for groups promoting or providing abortions. While Biden reversed this policy, PEPFAR’s future is uncertain, with calls from African leaders for continued support in addressing HIV/AIDS.

Lastly, tensions in the Horn of Africa are highlighted as a geopolitical flashpoint where both U.S. diplomacy and foreign interventions play critical roles. Potential changes in US policy, such as recognizing Somaliland’s independence, could destabilize relations across the region, risking greater involvement from foreign powers like Russia and the Gulf states.

In summary, Foreign Affairs suggests that Africa’s leaders desire a US foreign policy focused on sustainable partnerships, balanced security support, and economic collaboration that benefits Africa’s development rather than primarily competing with China’s influence. Both Harris and Trump present differing visions, but regardless of who wins, the US must address Africa’s evolving strategic significance thoughtfully if it aims to regain influence on the continent.