Land swap arrangement: Can it truly end Ukraine-Russia war?

As efforts to secure even a tentative ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine remain stalled, news this week of a possible upcoming summit between the US and Russian presidents in the UAE drew global attention. Speaking to reporters after a call with allied leaders — including Volodymyr Zelenskyy — to brief them on the development, US President Donald Trump was said to have hinted that Russia’s Putin might consider peace talks in return for discussing land swaps with Ukraine, according to people familiar with the conversation.

Those details were shared with Bloomberg by anonymous sources briefed on the call.

Ukrainian media outlet European Pravda, citing Poland’s Onet, reported on August 7 that it had obtained details of a US proposal presented to Putin in recent talks with Washington’s special envoy Steve Witkoff. The plan reportedly included a ceasefire — though not a full peace treaty — delayed resolution of the occupied territories’ status for 49 or 99 years, and lifting of sanctions.

Putin continues to claim Ukraine’s Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, seized illegally by Russia in 2014, along with the partially occupied eastern and southern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.

Ukraine has consistently said it will defend its statehood and territorial integrity. Zelenskyy stated on April 25 that Kyiv would only address territorial questions after a full, unconditional ceasefire. However, in February 2025, he suggested a possible land swap — offering to give up part of the Kursk region captured during Ukraine’s surprise August 2024 incursion into Russia — in exchange for one of the Russian-held Ukrainian regions, without specifying which.

As Bloomberg recalls, Washington had earlier floated recognising Crimea as Russian under a deal that would also see parts of other occupied regions effectively ceded to Moscow, while returning some areas of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson to Ukraine.

The arrangement of a land swap between Russia and Ukraine has also been touched upon by Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko, who told the BBC in April that Ukraine might have to temporarily surrender territory to achieve peace, amid mounting pressure from Trump to accept such terms. Yet polling shows strong public opposition in Ukraine to making territorial concessions.

David Szakonyi, a Russia politics expert at George Washington University remains unconvinced that such a deal will hold. Speaking to Newsweek magazine, he asserts that official Kyiv has little interest in any land-for-peace arrangement, especially one made without its participation. He added that a direct Trump-Putin meeting could work to Putin’s advantage, allowing the Russian leader to use informal, unstructured dialogue to push for concessions such as blocking Ukraine’s NATO bid or easing Western sanctions.

By Nazrin Sadigova