Will Russia launch another mobilization surge? Analysis by Wall Street Journal

The article published by the Wall Street Journal provides an in-depth analysis of Russia’s current military and political predicament as it grapples with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

It begins by outlining a crucial meeting months before President Vladimir Putin's inauguration, where Russian Defense Ministry officials proposed a new round of troop mobilization to compensate for losses on the battlefield. Putin, however, dismissed this idea, opting to rely on voluntary enlistment rather than compulsory mobilization. This stance highlights a significant dilemma: while Putin seeks to avoid the political costs associated with mobilization, Russia faces a severe shortfall in military manpower.

As Ukraine continues its advances and pressures Russian defences, the need for additional troops becomes increasingly urgent. The article emphasizes that Russia's current military strategy, which includes recruiting volunteers and offering substantial financial incentives, is struggling to meet the demands of the war. The high casualty rates, especially during key offensives such as the one on Kharkiv, further strain Russia’s resources and highlight the urgency for more troops.

The political implications of mobilization are also central to the discussion. The article points out that Putin and Russian leaders are cautious about initiating another mobilization due to the potential for public unrest and the negative impact it could have on domestic support for the war. Past mobilizations have led to protests and a mass exodus of men attempting to avoid service, contributing to the Kremlin's reluctance to repeat such measures.

Additionally, the article explores the broader implications of continued conflict and the Kremlin’s strategy of managing public perception. Russian media and propaganda efforts aim to frame the war as a distant, heroic endeavour, maintaining a semblance of normalcy for civilians. This approach seeks to balance the demands of the front with the need to keep the Russian public content and supportive of the government's war efforts.

In conclusion, the article underscores the complex interplay between military needs and political considerations in Russia’s handling of the Ukraine conflict. It suggests that while the Kremlin manages to avoid a large-scale mobilization for now, the pressure and consequences of such a decision remain a critical factor in shaping Russia’s war strategy and domestic stability.

by Tamilla Hasanova