Will Sunak change UK attitude towards Baku, Ankara? Forecast by Caliber.Az

Against the backdrop of British economists' disappointing forecasts of an impending financial crisis, the appointment of Rishi Sunak, who previously held the post of finance minister, as the new prime minister remains the main source of intrigue in big European politics. According to a British media survey, the overwhelming majority of citizens in this country pin their hopes on the newly appointed prime minister's extensive professional experience, and as a result, the country's economy will not reach the crisis's peak, as experts predict.

So, on October 25, news spread throughout the world's information field that Rishi Sunak had officially become the new Prime Minister of Great Britain, followed by the message that he had begun the process of forming a government.

And the initial signs of the financial crisis in Britain were discovered by experts back in September 2022. The authoritative publication The Economist claimed in early October that the government had lost control of the economy after a so-called mini-budget providing tax breaks worth 45 billion pounds (proposed by Chancellor of the Treasury Quasi Kvarteng) caused a sharp drop in British currencies. That is, there is every reason to believe that, as a result of the strong decline of the British pound against the US dollar, the new British government will be completely immersed in resolving internal economic recovery problems.

Several nuances, however, indicate that Rishi Sunak immediately and actively engaged in foreign policy. For example, the prime minister has already made several significant political statements since taking office. First, he clarified his government's future policy on the Russian-Ukrainian crisis. In fact, this is a symbolic move that draws the attention of the US and the West to the priorities of British foreign policy, particularly in light of their global confrontation with Russia. It is known that Rishi Sunak, in a conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, assured him that while he is in office as prime minister, the United Kingdom will continue to support Ukraine, and the traditional British leadership in protecting democracy and freedom will only strengthen. Secondly, Sunak promised government support to companies that have decided to terminate financial relations with Russia, and among them such reputable ones as BP, Shell, Aviva, MMG and Vanguard.

Thus, the new British prime minister challenged the Kremlin, in fact, confirming the country's previous political course towards Moscow and consolidating the theses on Russia and Ukraine voiced by him the day before in a telephone conversation with American President Joe Biden. It is reported that in this conversation, both sides expressed their commitment to support Ukraine, agreeing on a personal meeting at the upcoming G20 summit in Indonesia.

Apparently, there will be no drastic changes in Britain's foreign policy course under the new prime minister. At least this is clearly seen in the example of Russian-Ukrainian events. There is no particular need to analyse the perspective of the UK's relations with the United States and Western states, taking into account almost the same approaches to the global processes taking place in world politics now. But the further policy of the leading European country in relation to regional players, in particular Türkiye, is of undoubted interest.

It should be noted that the United Kingdom and Türkiye have long-standing bilateral diplomatic relations, that both countries are members of the G20, and, most importantly, that the United Kingdom has consistently supported Türkiye's accession to the European Union. By the way, after this island nation left the big European family, the first strategic dialogue on their common policy took place in Türkiye, led by Deputy Foreign Minister Farouk Kaymakci and UK Permanent Deputy Foreign Minister Sir Philip Barton.

There is also a free trade agreement between the two countries, and today the UK is Türkiye's second-largest export market. In addition, London and Ankara closely cooperate in the military sphere. For example, the British engine manufacturer Rolls-Royce is involved in the production of engines for Turkish combat aircraft. In the spring of this year, the Turkish daily Sabah reported that the UK had lifted all restrictions on arms exports to Türkiye and that London was interested in buying Turkish-made drones.

It is also appropriate to speak here about British-Azerbaijani relations. Talks about the fact that the UK wants to cooperate in the military sphere with Azerbaijan began back in 2004, so it is quite natural that bilateral defence projects are involved today. This was confirmed, among other things, by British Defence Minister James Happy's March visit to Baku. Special attention should be given to the UK support for Azerbaijan in the post-conflict period of the UN development programme, which provides for the clearance of our country's territories from mines and unexploded ordnance. This is yet another example of Britain's recognition of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity, which is critical for our country. It is also advantageous that our bilateral relations are of the strategic partnership variety.

Another noteworthy fact is that British Foreign Minister Dominic Raab tweeted that the British government welcomes the historic trilateral statement between Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia dated November 10, 2020, just a few minutes after its signing. Baku regarded the balanced and at the same time inspiring UK gesture as a confirmation of London's support for Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. Of course, this fact causes annoyance and concern in Armenia, and it uses every opportunity to accuse Azerbaijan of escalating tensions in the post-war period, thereby misleading the international community and our European partners. For example, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, in a telephone conversation with British Minister of State for Europe Leo Docherty, spoke about the unacceptability of statements equalising the parties and the importance of targeted condemnation of the "aggression of Azerbaijan" by the international community, including the United Kingdom. That is, Armenia does not give up trying to shift responsibility for Armenia's September provocation onto Azerbaijan's shoulders, although it has not achieved London's support.

There is no doubt that Armenia will continue its anti-Azerbaijani and anti-Turkish rhetoric, trying to impose it on European countries, in particular the UK. This, strictly speaking, reflects the pathetic essence of Armenian politics. However, there is every reason to believe that, given the established bilateral strategic cooperation, the probability of a change in the UK's foreign policy towards Azerbaijan with the arrival of a new government in the person of Rishi Sunak is extremely small, no matter how much Yerevan dreams about it.