Would Wagner chief’s death leave mark on Russian military elite? Living on borrowed time

The reported death of Wagner Group (PMC) chief Yevgenyi Prigozhin in a plane crash, along with the group’s co-founder Dmitry Utkin, comes as little surprise. Utkin, a little-known former GRU officer, is thought to be the Wagner group's founder and early military leader. Wagner-linked sources claimed the plane was brought down by Russian anti-aircraft fire near Tver. But it didn’t take long for theories to start careening around the internet.

Was the plane shot down? Or, perhaps, had a bomb been placed on board? And was Prigozhin really dead? Although some are doubtful that Yevgeni Prigozhin was on the crashed plane, his presumed death signalled a severe split of the Russian political elite and that any serious attempt to question Vladimir Putin's authority could inflict grave consequences.

Just a year ago, the Prigozhin-led Wagner group seemed a serious and viable option for Moscow to strengthen its footprint in the war-torn Ukraine. Using mercenary groups has been deemed a viable option for Russia as it reduces state institutions’ social and legal responsibility. For example, the active role of mercenaries in a major offensive in Ukraine enables Moscow to keep reserves of regular forces, consisting of poorly trained conscripts, and avoid catastrophic death tolls and public anger.

Similar to the Middle East and Africa, Wagner became an asset for the Russian government in Ukraine to capture Bakhmut and Soledar, though at the expense of huge human casualties. The group has been widely accused of war crimes across roughly half a dozen countries, including Syria and Ukraine. In Africa, in particular, Wagner's forces have been accused of crimes against humanity.

However, Wagner’s mercenaries’ poor performance in the full-scale war in Ukraine against Western-trained and supplied Ukrainian forces revealed its limitations, even though Wagner’s use permitted the Russian state to hide the mounting losses and casualties suffered by its side.

As a result, Wagner’s reputation was severely damaged shortly after its deployment in eastern Ukraine as the group reportedly failed to take major towns in Ukraine after months of ferocious battle and suffering significant losses.

Various sources indicate that on the Ukrainian front, Wagner deployed about 50,000 personnel on the battlefield and 10,000 contractors and 40,000 convicts recruited from the Russian prisons in exchange for promises of early release made by Prigozhin.

The continuous failures in Ukraine and the deepening feud between Prigozhin and the Russian Defense Ministry resulted in the short-lived insurrection of the Wagner group against the central government.

During the mutiny, Prigozhin’s band of mercenaries shot down at least two helicopters and killed about 15 Russian service personnel, many of them airmen. More significantly, for Russian President Vladimir Putin, Prigozhin's rebellion, which reached the outskirts of Moscow, exposed the fragility of the ruling government many deemed stable.

Even though Wagner’s plan to storm Moscow was halted, according to Prigozhin, to prevent further bloodshed among civilians and armed forces, we should note that Prigozhin’s revolt was doomed to fail because of several factors, including insufficient resources to force regime change in Russia.

Nevertheless, Wagner’s mutiny revealed new catalysts within the Russian military and political elite, namely the growing discontent with the situation in Ukraine and the attempted purge of skilled commanders and officers for their criticism of the MoD.

From the first day, it was obvious that Prigozhin turned out to be a source of challenge for Vladimir Putin personally and the local security sector. In this regard, his “unexpected death” should not come as a surprise, as Prigozhin lived as he apparently died: Violently, flamboyantly and at the centre of intrigue.

Unlike independent media sources, the Russian state media were quick to declare Prigozhin dead due to the plane crash, with the Investigative Committee, Russia’s top law-enforcement body, opening a criminal investigation into the crash. However, having the Investigative Committee running the show is hardly a promising development, at least in terms of transparency in international aviation.

While the official investigation of the incident will take some time, it is fair to note that Yevgeni Prigozhin’s presumed death will enable Putin to consolidate his power again and tackle any other possible mutiny. Certainly, those in the political elite will take on one crucial lesson from the turbulent summer of 2023: "You come at the king; you best not miss."

Moreover, Vladimir Putin is unlikely to back away from his well-treaded PMC approach to foreign policy. On the contrary, since Wagner's mutiny, a few more PMCs were established in Russia, though under new strict regulations. Indeed, the new regulations and significant changes introduced regarding PMCs are aimed at tightening the state’s grip on military groups, ensuring they serve national interests.