Balkans, Baltic States, Moldova – whose door will Russian-Ukrainian war knock on?
    Expert Oleg Bondarenkio in touch with Caliber.Az

    INTERVIEWS  12 August 2022 - 15:17

    Matanat Nasibova
    Caliber.Az

    Assumptions about the possible spread of the Russian-Ukrainian war to the territory of third countries are now and then voiced in the post-Soviet expert community. After six months of prolonged military conflict, such a scenario is not ruled out in Europe.

    In any case, Slovenian President Borut Pahor recently said that the conflict could well spill over from Ukraine to the Balkans. According to Anadolu Agency, Pahor admits such a possibility if the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation drags on for a long time. Moreover, according to the Slovenian president, the consequences may be more noticeable in the Western Balkans and in the southern border zone. The Western Balkans refers to the territories of the former Yugoslavia (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia), as well as Albania.

    To avoid such a development of events, Borut Pahor urged the leaders of Russia and Ukraine to urgently sit down at the negotiating table, possibly with the mediation of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose peacekeeping efforts the head of Slovenia appreciates very highly. In addition, Erdogan suggested using Türkiye as a platform for negotiations between the Presidents of Russia and Ukraine, Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

    Pahor's apprehension is shared by Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda, who suggested in an interview with Voice of America that if Russia succeeds in Ukraine, the Baltic states will be next on its way.

    "I do not know who they will choose as the next target - the Baltic states, perhaps Poland, perhaps Romania, but this is not the most important question. The most important challenge is to do something in the format of NATO and the European Union that would stop Russia," the Lithuanian president said.

    Meanwhile, commenting on these statements by the top officials of Slovenia and Lithuania, Oleg Bondarenko, director of the Progressive Policy Foundation, an expert on the Balkan countries, told Caliber.Az that the conflict in Ukraine cannot move to the Balkans or Lithuania in any way, but there may well be their own hotbeds of tension.

    "If we are talking about Lithuania, naturally, the cornerstone is the problem of free transit to Russia. The Kaliningrad region is a recognized part of the Russian Federation, so any cargoes that go from or to the Kaliningrad region cannot be unregulated. This is quite obvious. If Lithuania takes any aggressive actions, it will inevitably cause a certain conflict. I hope that such incidents will not escalate into something more serious.

    As for the Balkans, there are long-standing conflicts of their own. In principle, we should understand that if a Pandora's Box opens in one place in Europe (as happened in Ukraine), it can just as easily open in any other place. That is, the conflict in the Balkans can erupt quite independently of the Ukrainian one. At present, the war in Ukraine has nothing to do with the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina and cannot continue on the territory of the Balkans. In general, there is no direct overlap of any of these conflicts," Bondarenko said, suggesting, however, that Transnistria could be an exception.

    "Such a threat is caused by the fact," the political scientist explains, "that Transnistria borders the regions of Ukraine where fighting is taking place. Transnistria has its own long-standing conflict. Incidentally, there is a huge ammunition warehouse there that could pose a danger if someone were to impinge on it."

    According to Bondarenko's forecast, the conflict in the Balkans may break out in September due to the unresolved situation with the passage of Serbs who live on the territory of Kosovo. At the same time, the Russian political analyst does not rule out that the sides will be able to reach a compromise solution to this problem by the end of this month.

     

    Caliber.Az




Read also

"I wouldn’t be surprised if Gantz came to Baku to negotiate a new military deal” Caliber.Az interview with Israeli expert Yigal Levin

05 October 2022 - 17:58

Armenian PM resists: "Either Russians fight for us with Azerbaijan, or we head to West" Sergei Markov on Caliber.Az

05 October 2022 - 17:39

"Kyiv has information useful to Baku, Riyadh and other capitals in the region" Expert Sergey Danilov on Iranian UAVs in the Russian army

03 October 2022 - 16:32

"Armenia's pivot towards West will end badly" Caliber.Az interview with Russian expert Dmitry Malyshev

04 October 2022 - 10:26

"We left anxious and cold Baku in January'90 and back to city filled with warmth, light and kindness" Caliber.Az interview with Canadian blogger

03 October 2022 - 17:21

"Yerevan expects Moscow's overt criticism of Baku" Caliber.Az interview with political analyst Mikhail Neyzhmakov

04 October 2022 - 11:33
ADVERTS
Latest news

    Fact check: Did Ukraine put Pink Floyd's Roger Waters on "Kill List"?

    05 October 2022 - 19:00

    Azerbaijani diaspora organisations address to international entities on Edilli mass burial

    05 October 2022 - 18:54

    Economy ministers discuss holding Azerbaijani-Russian interregional forum

    PHOTO

    05 October 2022 - 18:45

    Czech petition on annexing Kaliningrad from Russia signed by thousands

    05 October 2022 - 18:30

    OPEC+ key ministers agree to cut oil production

    05 October 2022 - 18:15

    Armenia dreams of replacing Burkina Faso in France’s colonial policy

    Review by Nasibova

    05 October 2022 - 18:08

    Azerbaijan defuses mines planted in Kalbajar, Dashkasan

    PHOTO

    05 October 2022 - 18:00

    "I wouldn’t be surprised if Gantz came to Baku to negotiate a new military deal”

    Caliber.Az interview with Israeli expert Yigal Levin

    05 October 2022 - 17:58

    Armenia admits its returned soldiers not tortured in Azerbaijan

    05 October 2022 - 17:45

    Armenian PM resists: "Either Russians fight for us with Azerbaijan, or we head to West"

    Sergei Markov on Caliber.Az

    05 October 2022 - 17:39

    Armenian FM sees nothing unacceptable in five principles proposed by Azerbaijan

    05 October 2022 - 17:25

    Armenian PM to meet Azerbaijani, Turkish presidents in Prague

    05 October 2022 - 17:15

    UN-HABITAT employee: Azerbaijani IDPs really want to return to their lands

    05 October 2022 - 16:57

    Ukraine claims its army can legally attack Russian facilities in annexed territories

    05 October 2022 - 16:50

    Russia plans to supervise Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant after annexation

    05 October 2022 - 16:40

    Azerbaijan - a Muslim-majority safe haven for Jews

    Tel-Aviv opts for Azerbaijan to accommodate Jewish Russian olim

    05 October 2022 - 16:40

    UK’s prime minister: Ukraine must win, it will win

    05 October 2022 - 16:25

    Azerbaijani President receives executive director of UN Human Settlements Programme

    PHOTO/UPDATED

    05 October 2022 - 16:18

    Weapons to become more accessible in Armenia

    05 October 2022 - 16:05

    Azerbaijan to demine 227 settlements in three stages

    05 October 2022 - 16:00

    Armenia proposes to announce mobilisation

    05 October 2022 - 15:59

    UK welcomes Azerbaijan’s release of 17 Armenian POWs

    05 October 2022 - 15:45

    Istanbul to host next Azerbaijani-Turkish Energy Forum

    05 October 2022 - 15:36

    President: Poland in talks with US about joining nuclear weapons sharing scheme

    05 October 2022 - 15:15

    ISW: Ukraine troops make significant progress in Kherson direction

    05 October 2022 - 15:07

    World Bank says Ukraine needs $350 billion for recovery, reconstruction

    05 October 2022 - 15:05

    Azerbaijan unveils timeframe for resettlement to Aghdam

    05 October 2022 - 15:00

    Azerbaijani minister: Armenia must be responsible for committed crimes

    05 October 2022 - 14:45

    Iran protests: Eighteen days of suppression, over 130 killed

    05 October 2022 - 14:35

    Donetsk region's head vows to liberate Krasny Liman from Ukrainian military

    05 October 2022 - 14:35

    EU to introduce new criteria for punishment for attempts to circumvent sanctions against Russia

    05 October 2022 - 14:30

    Polish PM considers Putin's nuclear threat as bluff

    05 October 2022 - 14:15

    Saudi Arabia, Russia may find their oil pricing power limited

    05 October 2022 - 13:45

    EU countries agree on eighth package of anti-Russian sanctions

    05 October 2022 - 13:37

    Ukrainian media: Putin preparing appeal to Russians due to change in status of "military operation"

    05 October 2022 - 13:22

    President: Azerbaijan seeks to open new page of peace with Armenia

    05 October 2022 - 13:20

    Azerbaijani President: Aghdam city completely destroyed during years of occupation

    05 October 2022 - 13:15

    Azerbaijani President: Armenia planted over million landmines during occupation

    05 October 2022 - 13:04

    Putin approves ratification of treaties accessing new regions to Russia

    05 October 2022 - 13:00

    President Aliyev: Scale of Armenian barbarism, vandalism morally exhausting

    05 October 2022 - 12:56

    Russia fully committed to statement on preventing nuclear war - foreign ministry

    05 October 2022 - 12:49

    Estonia unveils US financial assistance this year

    05 October 2022 - 12:35

    President: Armenia continues terror, aggression policy against Azerbaijan

    05 October 2022 - 12:25

    US launches last ditch effort to dissuade OPEC from cutting oil production

    05 October 2022 - 12:15

    President: About 250 Azerbaijanis killed, injured by Armenia-laid mines

    05 October 2022 - 12:03

All news