Brussels’ clear aim: Regime change in Tbilisi Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

Recently, the Speaker of the Georgian Parliament, Shalva Papuashvili, accused the European Union Ambassador to Georgia, Paweł Herczyński, of directly interfering in the country’s electoral process. The head of Georgia’s legislative body made this statement during the “Topic of the Day” programme on 1TV.

According to the Speaker, Herczyński publicly took a stance against one of the parties 22 days before the election, calling the campaign banners of the ruling Georgian Dream party “shameful, and terrifying.” Papuashvili also noted that such actions violate international law, including Article 41 of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations.

However, as is well known, current relations between the EU and Georgia are marked by tension. The European Union has been issuing harsh statements in response to Georgia’s calls for consultations and discussions on pressing issues. This was stated last week by Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze in a briefing to journalists.

“We consistently ask the European Union to begin consultations and discussions on the most relevant topics. However, in return, we receive vague, empty, and even rude statements,” he said, adding that today’s European Parliament bears little difference from the Supreme Soviet of the USSR, “with the same pompous rhetoric and level of injustice.”

What lies behind the EU’s harsh and biased approach to Tbilisi’s political stance? Why does Brussels’ behaviour seem so steeped in imperial overtones? Caliber.Az posed these questions to Georgian experts and political analysts.

According to international affairs expert Arkadi Nozadze, the problem with the European Union lies in the fact that its views on so-called democratic ideals have remained unchanged — and perhaps have even worsened.

“There had been hope in Tbilisi that Brussels would sense a certain wind of change and, in the new year, adjust its hardline rhetoric towards Georgia. It was expected that the stance of the White House and Donald Trump’s attempts to revise the West’s standard political approaches would have a positive impact, leading to some kind of diplomatic reset in Brussels. But that didn’t happen — we see that the EU is in no hurry to reconsider the ideology it has adhered to for decades. They simply lack the political will to do so.

I believe this also stems from a crisis of political leadership in Europe. A true leader is, first and foremost, a politician and strategist capable of reassessing their position. But just look at the EU’s actions and statements in the context of global geopolitics and assess, as they say, the potential. It hasn’t changed — the narratives are the same. The EU continues droning on about war with Russia, even though the U.S. President has for several weeks been actively pushing both sides towards negotiations.

In essence, Brussels has been sidelined from the peace mediation process in Europe — it’s been taken over by Donald Trump — while figures like Macron and Merz have become known only for foolish scandals and exposés. Their entire activity boils down to vague political support for Kyiv, without any concrete attempts to stop the war. On the contrary, the EU is increasingly dragging European countries into a senseless confrontation with the Russian bear.

I say all this because it seems that, with regard to Georgia as well, the European Union hasn’t made any serious effort to reflect or rethink its stance — Brussels continues to wage a political battle against Georgia, actively employing pressure tactics and even attempting to instigate regime change through violence and unrest. Active interference in a country’s internal affairs is something the EU is apparently quite adept at, while it simply lacks the political intelligence and strategic capacity for anything more.

Unfortunately, relations between Tbilisi and Brussels have reached a dead end. The European Union currently lacks the necessary resources to engage in a new, constructive dialogue with Georgia — even though Tbilisi is quite literally calling on Europe to do just that,” said Nozadze.

At the same time, Georgian political analyst Givi Ganidze believes that Brussels has lost its guiding thread of common sense and logic in its relations with Tbilisi.

“While Russia is moving closer to Georgia—perhaps clumsily in some respects, but still trying to offer some compromises—Brussels continues to operate on autopilot, essentially relying on the conservative principles of the Biden administration’s approach to relations with the South Caucasus countries, which consist of only two elements: pressure and sanctions.

It is also worth noting that, amid the political crisis in Europe, President Macron managed to implant into the minds of Brussels politicians a certain Armenian discourse on promoting European values. This discourse suggested that the most successful way out of the situation in Georgia—where the EU’s approaches have begun to collapse—would be to shift focus to working with Yerevan. However, this emphasis was clearly superficial and poorly thought out.

As a result, the European Union has essentially exhausted itself in its relations with Armenia: there is little to offer, and, as they say, little to gain. Yet there is still no new strategy. Currently, Georgia’s efforts to improve relations are met only with deafening misunderstanding from Brussels toward Tbilisi’s position. It seems European strategists are so inert that they fail to notice the obvious — while Europe hisses at Georgia like an angry goose, Moscow is actively devising tactics to build bridges with Tbilisi. The EU now faces a very real risk of losing Georgia forever,” said Ganidze.