Is the collapse of the EU imminent? Expert predictions on Caliber.Az

The scenario of the European Union’s collapse is possible, as the structure remains quite fragile. This was stated by American economist Jeffrey Sachs, director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University (New York).

When asked by journalists whether the breakup of the European Union is likely today, the American economist answered affirmatively. “Yes, the European Union could break up because it is still a fragile entity. But I believe that there should be a renewal of Europe and a strong Europe, which I think would be good for Europe and good for the world. But it is possible that the European Union will instead break up,” the expert noted.

Interesting perspective. How likely is the outcome that Sachs talks about? What specific contradictions, and of what nature, could ultimately lead to the breakup of the EU? What could become the starting point? Whose position? Whose actions?

Foreign experts shared their views on this matter with Caliber.Az.

Dr. Greg Simons, PhD in Philosophy and Political Scientist, Professor at Daffodil International University in Dhaka (Bangladesh), immediately stated that he fully agrees with Professor Sachs.

“100% yes! The EU will most likely collapse because of its rigid ideological path, which creates contradictions and exposes weaknesses and threats.

In its current form, the EU leadership is completely unaccountable and opaque in its political course, which aims to centralise as much power as possible in the hands of unelected, mediocre (at best) officials like von der Leyen, Kallas, and others. These people promote a dystopian form of ‘liberalism’ at the expense of democracy, criminalising dissent against their ideological agenda. Their anti-Russian obsession is bankrupting and deindustrialising the EU. They are incapable of admitting any mistakes or failed policies; instead, they double down on them.

The only open question is not whether the EU will self-destruct, but what will happen first — bankruptcy and dissolution or uprising and dissolution,” Simons believes.

Dr. Vakhtang Maisaia, PhD in Political Science and professor from Georgia, takes a contrasting view and believes it is too early to write off the European Union.

“In my opinion, it is premature to draw such futuristic and inaccurate conclusions as Mr. Sachs does. Yes, the European Union is currently going through some difficult times, but there is no need to declare its demise. On the contrary, the EU has adopted a policy of expansion, firstly.

Secondly, it is strengthening its subregional frameworks. For example, the Weimar Triangle (Poland, Germany, France) is functioning well and reinforcing the European Union.

Furthermore, new members are expected to join this intergovernmental union. Most likely, Moldova, Ukraine, and possibly Bosnia will be next. So the issue of enlargement by 2030 is still very much on the agenda.

I also believe that the EU is now reaching a new level in international geopolitics, becoming one of the global actors, meaning it is starting to influence international relations,” Maisaia outlined his view.

German political scientist Alexander Rahr, professor at the Institute of International Politics WeltTrends (Potsdam), stated that the European Union can, but should not, collapse — neither for economic nor ideological reasons.

“At present, the Union relies on relatively strong economic systems — for example, the wealth of its leading member states — so there is no significant collapse in finance, production, or resources. The same applies to law and order — as long as the institutions and the liberal model of the member countries are supported by the majority of Europe’s population, a political catastrophe is not felt.

However, the European Union could collapse in the face of external challenges such as wars, including trade wars. It is likely that the current EU will become smaller, with a number of member states leaving the Union as ideological disagreements intensify. In the long term, the EU will split into Northern and Southern Europe; instead of the old West, there will be, for example, a ‘North’ uniting Germany, France, and England,” Rahr predicts.