French light tanks as game changers in Ukraine War The West surprises again

Ukraine's war is approaching its one-year anniversary, which could be a turning point amid dramatic losses on both sides and global security cataclysms. With several tactical losses of Russia in the battleground, the year 2023 could result in Ukraine’s significant victory following France’s recent decision to supply Kyiv with indigenously built AMX-10 RC light tanks and Bastion APC armoured fighting vehicles.

While the symbolism of delivering it to Kyiv is important, it remains to be seen how practical a thinly protected, 1970s-vintage armoured vehicle will be on the battlefield in Ukraine. The AMX-10RC's thin armour protects against small arms and shrapnel but not large-calibre tank rounds or anti-tank missiles. While its manufacturer, Giat Industries, does offer an add-on kit with extra armour and missile countermeasures, the AMX-10RC is more suited for locating the enemy.

The decision came after a phone call between French President Emmanuel Macron and his Ukrainian counterpart, President Volodymyr Zelensky. Their delivery, when it takes place, could be a major "crossing the Rubicon" moment, as it would mark the first time Western tanks will be deployed on the battlefield in Ukraine.

Earlier, the Biden administration announced that it would send Patriot missiles to Kyiv, though it stopped short of granting Ukraine’s request for U.S. tanks or long-range missiles due to operational concerns and fears of escalation risks with Moscow. This has left Ukraine reliant on a motley collection of Soviet-designed tanks acquired before the war, Russian tanks captured in battle, or refurbished models provided by countries such as Poland and the Czech Republic.

However, President Macron's decision to dispatch light tanks to Ukraine put pressure on Washington and London to provide additional support to Kyiv to exceed France's bold step. Hence, official London is now considering sending 12 Challenger 2 battle tanks to Ukraine. Moreover, Poland and other Atlantic allies are putting pressure on Germany to send German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine or allow countries like Spain and Poland, which possess them, to do so. As a result, Berlin announced last week that it would send Marder infantry fighting vehicles to Kyiv, even those that cannot replace modern battle tanks on the battleground.

In addition to Germany, Spain, Poland, Greece, Denmark and Finland are among numerous countries already using the approximately 60-ton Leopard 2, which is equipped with a 120-millimetre cannon as well as a state-of-the-art defence system and armour. Hence, this would allow allies to jointly organize the delivery of both the tanks and required ammunition and team up on the required maintenance and repair.

Indeed, Germany’s positive decision regarding Leopard tanks would likely open the floodgates across the E.U. for others to match Berlin's move. With Russia’s aggressive tactics in Soledar and Bakhmut's directions, NATO members' concerns regarding "further escalation" seemed unjustified. The problem also arises from the fact that some European far-right nationalist parties express their admiration of Vladimir Putin while questioning the "rationality of huge military aid" to Ukraine.

Unlike European counterparts, however, there is no sign that the Biden administration is wavering in its support for Ukraine. Nevertheless, the situation may complicate soon as the populist Republican Kevin McCarthy was recently named as the next head of the U.S. House of Representatives and reportedly pledged to cut aid to Ukraine. As such, any further aid to Kyiv will need to be passed by a Republican-controlled House, and as a speaker, McCarthy is willing to complicate that picture. The far-right populists in McCarthy's caucus have also called for the U.S. military budget to be cut, which could be used indirectly to reduce aid to Ukraine.

With such news, it would be interesting to watch Moscow’s reaction to the new batch of weaponry supplied to Ukraine. It continues to use old Soviet doctrine and has yet to employ combined arms manoeuvres effectively. It also uses ineffective leadership models without empowering decision-making at the lowest level. Moreover, the Russian military will likely see additional ways of adding more weapons and soldiers to the battleground, but without a change in its tactical and operational approach, it will continue to suffer heavy losses and cede territory.

The introduction of modern heavy and light weaponry in Ukraine could have tactical and strategic consequences depending on the effectiveness of their usage against interventionists. It is also fair to say that these vehicles could tip the balance of the fight on the ground, which could, in turn, escalate tensions between Russia and the West.