“Iron Fist” in place
Armenia should rethink

ANALYTICS  26 March 2023 - 14:39

Armenian provocations have been particularly intense over the past two weeks, both on various stretches of the conditional border with Azerbaijan and on an area temporarily controlled by Russian peacekeepers.

The Armenian military’s aggressive actions take place in parallel with similar provocative statements by the Yerevan authorities as if they were vying for supremacy in the school of Armenian scholasticism. This school is known for its frantic, hypocritical, silly, and childish behaviour. It is a very primitive, early branch of rhetorical science that did not advance further to preserve its authenticity. The totality of these actions demonstrates in the most blatant way the Armenian side's desire to derail the peace talks and thus embark on a path of revanchism towards Azerbaijan.

For its part, Baku, committed to the peace process, responds to each such provocation with a warning of consequences, in addition to suppression by fire. However, amazingly, after each such warning a new subversive attack is launched by the opposite side. As recently as yesterday, on March 24, for instance, the positions of Azerbaijani Armed Forces were shelled in various segments of the conditional borderline as well as in the Khojavand region. There has also been another movement of military equipment along a bypass road, accompanied by vehicles of Russian peacekeepers. In addition, military vehicles escorted by Russian peacekeepers have been seen travelling on a bypass road.

We can conclude that the Armenian (and in part Russian) authorities apparently felt that the number of warnings from the Azerbaijani side was inversely proportional to their willingness to implement them. To their disappointment, it must be noted that this is where the trap of the so-called “wishful thinking” comes into play. It wouldn't be unreasonable to expect that this trap will be easier to slip into as long as the general awareness of society is more closely tied to myths (wishful thinking) of all kinds. But is there any society in the world more passionate about believing in myths than the Armenians? It is difficult to imagine. So, they cling to every straw, as they see it, that postpones the demise of the Armenian "miatsum" project. This is also true of Russia to a certain extent (discussed below). On the contrary, if we were Armenians, we would be most concerned about the number of warnings, because every new preventive appeal, so to speak, is a fixation on another crime. As expected, the punishment will be determined according to the most serious crime. Or maybe it will be cumulative. It is up to us to decide.

Another factor that reinforces Armenia's belief in the possibility of making peace is the support of so-called patrons. And who are the patrons?

The first to come to mind is Russia. As can be seen from recent events, Russia actively supports the separatist aspirations of the Armenian side. But it is not so simple with Russia, which plays its own game in the Caucasus. Against the backdrop of a dire situation on the Ukrainian front, Russia, pardon the pun, seeks to "postpone the issue faster". It does not need either a systemic peace or a new escalation in Karabakh to do this. The paradox is that it does not even need Armenia itself to do this. However, given Armenia's blatant trolling of the CSTO, Moscow is unlikely to support Yerevan if Azerbaijan carries out a preventive operation on the notional border to force peace on Armenia. Moscow's objective is to maintain and strengthen its presence in Azerbaijan (in Karabakh). Armenia is already in its hands.

The US? The visit of former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Yerevan last September certainly cheered the Armenians, but not for long. The recent meeting of the Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders with Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in Munich showed that Azerbaijan's position was understood by the Americans. Overall, the Anglo-Saxon world, which has strong business links with Azerbaijan, has no interest in complicating relations with our country.

The European Union, perhaps? Why, then, does Armenia fear the Brussels format of the negotiations, insisting on France's inclusion?

So, it is France, after all. The French, who dislike everything Turkic and Islamic and seek to block Türkiye from becoming a major gas hub and Azerbaijan from becoming a transit territory for Asian energy carriers to the West, seemingly benefit from any aggravation directed against Azerbaijan. The Macron government, scandalised on all fronts, seems very keen on a small victorious war against Azerbaijan. By the hands of Armenians? Of course, this is ridiculous. Still, the French understand it. Or maybe they themselves want to fight? It is even more ridiculous. They are not going to send a dozen gendarmes to defend Armenia! Or is the Fifth Republic going to send its brigades there? And this, it must be said, is no longer funny. To declare, protest, insult Azerbaijan - that's fine, but to die for the Armenians, that's a mauvais ton of fun.

Or maybe the French are counting on another force willing to support the Armenians. And that force is, presumably, Iran? Is there really a Paris-Tehran axis? Let us not be confused by the species differences between the libertarian French and the Iranian conservative mullahs. Let us remember that Ayatollah Khomeini flew perfectly from Paris to Tehran to rule Iran, apparently accompanied by short-skirted France Air stewardesses. Iran is inherently a non-Islamic state that, because of the Persian elite's constant desire for ethnic chauvinism, has one side of it drawn towards anti-Islamism. Their dream of dividing the Islamic and Turkic worlds blends in perfectly with the similar aspirations of the French elites. It is possible that Paris would like to open two fronts against Azerbaijan - Armenian and Iranian.

But does Iran want to attack Azerbaijan? Unlike Yerevan, Tehran is more pragmatic, and in its aggression against Azerbaijan, it will most likely not go further than making mockabrid video clips (which, let's admit, is killer fun in itself). And if it does, it will receive a worthy counterattack not only from the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan but also from its brotherly Türkiye, which, apart from everything else, is linked to our country by the Shusha Declaration, regardless of who will be at the head of the Republic of Türkiye. By the way, Türkiye's aid, even before the presidential elections, to Azerbaijan in response to Iran's possible aggression will undoubtedly further strengthen Erdogan's domestic rating, which neither the mullahs nor the mussies will be delighted about. The factor of South Azerbaijan cannot be discounted either. Iran's open aggression against Azerbaijan could trigger a new wave of anti-government uprisings, this time on ethnic grounds. Thus, attempts to weaken the Turkic world can with high probability lead to its multiple strengthening. And then there is Israel...

In any case, whether the Iranian factor is used, whether Russia stops pandering to the Armenian separatists or not, Azerbaijan has a whole arsenal of precision weapons capable of selectively sobering up the Armenian forces, bypassing the Russian peacekeepers as well as the French gendarmes and German police, and thus avoiding an international scandal. Of course, the Russians and Germans will express concern, the French a strong protest. As if this was the first time for us! We ourselves express our deepest concern and the strongest protest. But our concerns, our protest and our actions have more legitimacy than yours because we have international law on our side.

So, it appears that Armenia, which is not linked to any full-fledged strategic alliance and has no legitimate justification for its goals, is doomed to a new catastrophe in this situation. All the more so as the Iron Fist is already in place...

Caliber.Az