Armenia risks facing big troubles Experts’ opinions at Caliber.Az

Russia has again warned Armenia.

“Armenia’s rash steps may make it impossible to return to joint work on creating a common defense space with Russia and other countries of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation [CSTO],” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin said in an interview with TASS.

He noted that rash decisions that will provide the Westerners with full access to national databases and information sensitive to the country's security ultimately threaten the country’s sovereignty.

“One of the main tasks of the West is to undermine the integration processes in Eurasia; our common integration projects, namely, the CSTO, the  Commonwealth of Independent States [CIS], the Eurasian Economic Union [EAEU], irritate the West,” Galuzin said.

How can this warning be characterised? Has Yerevan crossed the red lines? The Russian political experts expressed opinions for Caliber.Az.

Russian political analyst, writer and publicist Kirill Sitnikov said that Galuzin’s statement to Yerevan should be thoroughly considered.

“Although Galuzin’s statement is more recommendatory rather than accusatory, as opposed to Zakharova’s some recent statements addressed to Armenia, this softness is also alarming. Moscow’s dissatisfaction with Yerevan’s behavior, and even some red lines are obvious. The Kremlin makes it quite clear that it will not protect Armenia from any external threats within the CSTO and this is a very specific message. At the same time, we see that Yerevan completely underestimates Moscow’s warnings, Yerevan’s deafness irritates the Kremlin, and it is also working out the plans in this regard,” he added.

“The death of the Iranian leadership also affected Yerevan’s pro-Western policy. Armenia became quiet for a while, because it is not yet entirely clear how the Iranian future leadership will consider Yerevan’s maneuvers, which Iran will consider a threat to itself. So, it seems that Yerevan will conduct its Western maneuvers for some time with less dynamics than planned. However, Russia is still concerned—that’s why Galuzin made such a statement “Moscow is greatly concerned about Yerevan’s behind-the-scenes games, which it cannot fully monitor. Armenia should not relax; it is better for it to think hard. Galuzin’s message may be the last one for Yerevan,” Sitnikov added.

Russian political analyst Vladislav Gerdin said that it is very obvious that Yerevan, as always, demonstrates its complete unwillingness to participate in the game that it itself started.

“Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan confidently performed the Azerbaijani dance in Shusha, provoking Baku, but after just a couple of months he resembled a shaking paralytic who had completely lost the ability to act and make adequate decisions. Now Yerevan is in almost a similar situation. It risks running into big troubles. Yerevan is completely destructive in its actions and works according to such an agenda as “stop planning and controlling its own actions”. If Moscow sees a geopolitical threat in Yerevan, then the end could be very sad. The Kremlin can strike first, it can disgrace Armenia, drag it into a scandal in which its territorial integrity may be ruined, or simply deprive Armenia of all opportunities towards the EAEU by canceling all customs benefits. Armenia started all these combinations itself, and it will have to answer for it. I think that Galuzin warns about it,” Gerdin added.