Azerbaijan's kind consent to Washington meeting
    Calculated move

    ANALYTICS  10 July 2024 - 18:40

    Murad Abiyev

    Media reports indicate that today, on the sidelines of the NATO summit, a trilateral meeting is expected involving US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov, and Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan.

    In recent months and weeks, various representatives of official Washington have emphasized the urgent need for a swift peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia. These statements have consistently shown support for Yerevan, sometimes accompanied by hints of pressure on Baku. For example, US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O'Brien mentioned an independent investigation into the circumstances of Armenians relocating from Azerbaijan to Armenia in an interview with Armenian Radio Liberty. Almost simultaneously, a report by the American "human rights" organization Freedom House was released, accusing Azerbaijan of ethnic cleansing against the Armenian population. Concurrently, assistance to Armenia from the United States is openly provided across all fronts.

    Washington's activity runs parallel to Baku's broadcast demands for amendments to Armenia's Constitution, specifically the removal of clauses asserting territorial claims against Azerbaijan. This stands as one of Azerbaijan's main prerequisites for signing a peace agreement.

    The White House is not keen on seeing Yerevan pursue peace on this matter, and Yerevan itself lacks the will or clear determination to convincingly persuade its society of the necessity for such constitutional amendments. Yerevan's motivations are understandable—the sudden shutdown of the “miatsum” (unity) reactor that fuels the collective unconscious of Armenian society was never anticipated. Armenian authorities must also consider this, even if they are sincerely convinced of the need to amend the fundamental law. However, Washington's position demands deeper consideration, though it too becomes understandable upon closer examination.

    In its actions, Washington is guided by two main considerations. Firstly, Americans aim to maintain tensions between countries to exert influence over the region through conflict management. Support for Armenia becomes increasingly relevant for Washington because Georgia, the third South Caucasus country, albeit not without risks, is pursuing a course to eliminate Western interference in its internal affairs. Secondly, and no less important, on the eve of perhaps the most dramatic U.S. presidential elections in modern history, Democrats are keen not to lose the support of the Armenian diaspora—several hundred thousand actively voting citizens. If the Biden administration could persuade Baku to sign a peace treaty with Armenia without preconditions regarding the Armenian constitution, this would be a credit to the Democratic Party. The 44-day war and Azerbaijan's victory occurred during the Republicans' tenure, and Democrats sought to portray themselves to Armenians as the "correctors" of the situation.

    The installation of the Lachin checkpoint, anti-terrorism measures on September 19-20, 2023, and the subsequent voluntary resettlement of Armenians to Armenia occurred during the Democratic administration and dealt a heavy blow to their prestige in the eyes of the Armenian population in the United States.

    We can assume that now, in an attempt to catch up and prove to American Armenians that "not all is lost," Washington is likely also trying to persuade Baku to include a provision in the agreement ensuring the unconditional return of Armenians to the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan.

    Baku's position is clear. Yerevan must remove from its constitution any clauses containing territorial claims against Azerbaijan. The country also rejects any mention of "Armenian Karabakh" in the peace agreement. If Armenians wish to live in the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan, they must accept Azerbaijani citizenship. Furthermore, this issue must be resolved reciprocally, meaning the 250,000 Azerbaijanis expelled from Armenia should be granted a similar right to return to their former places of residence. Pressuring Baku is futile. To understand this, one needs only to recall the events of previous years when Azerbaijan managed Western pressure under less favourable conditions—first, the occupation of 20% of its territory, and then the presence of part of the Karabakh territory under the responsibility of Russian peacekeepers.

    So what does the meeting in Washington imply in this case, considering that Blinken, unlike German Chancellor Scholz and Kazakh President Tokayev, not only provides a platform for the parties but also intends to attend himself?

    As Azerbaijani political analyst and head of the South Caucasus Research Center Farhad Mammadov writes in his Telegram channel, Azerbaijan has acknowledged the meeting due to substantial US influence, prioritizing US opinion over the negotiation process with Armenia.

    Indeed, from this perspective, we again observe not a reactive but a proactive strategy from Baku, which, while rejecting the format of trilateral negotiations, still does not refuse the meeting, allowing its American counterparts to fully reveal their cards. Azerbaijan remains committed to strengthening its sovereignty and international standing. There is no room on this path for momentary grievances against world powers, nor is there a desire to please one more than another.

    To complete my thoughts, let me quote to quote Farhad Mammadov again: “Azerbaijan's position is clear and logical, and it will be reiterated in Washington. Immediate signing of a peace agreement, as transmitted from Washington, is not expected... And so, after the strategic partnership with China, a visit to the US is just what is needed...”


    Subscribe to our Telegram channel

Read also

China’s increasing footprint in Central Asia Stepping up military

19 July 2024 - 15:06

How Azerbaijan asserts its global influence? President Aliyev in London

19 July 2024 - 16:14

Armenian-French alliance vs London’s goodwill Peace talks tanked?

19 July 2024 - 13:06

Azerbaijan-Slovenia ties get gas boost: New pipeline, green energy on horizon Caliber.Az review

19 July 2024 - 14:43

Pashinyan harms peace process by refusing to meet Azerbaijani president at UK summit What's next?

19 July 2024 - 12:26

Armenian PM's hesitation to meet Azerbaijani leader in UK casts doubt on his peace deal commitment Has the peace process reached the deadline?

18 July 2024 - 17:53
Latest news

    Exploring world's most overrated tourist attractions

    20 July 2024 - 05:04

    World's first dual-tower solar thermal plant boosts efficiency

    20 July 2024 - 03:05

    Complex India-China relationship amidst shifting dynamics

    20 July 2024 - 01:03

    Japan faces surge in Covid-19 cases amidst new variant

    19 July 2024 - 23:03

    UN rep calls for global unity ahead of COP29

    19 July 2024 - 21:16

    Ukraine secures accelerated F-16 delivery from Poland

    19 July 2024 - 21:04

    Azerbaijan proposes $1 billion climate finance action fund at COP29

    19 July 2024 - 20:52

    Azerbaijan announces significant housing developments in Zangilan


    19 July 2024 - 20:48

    Azerbaijan launches COP29 partnership programme for local businesses

    19 July 2024 - 20:40

    NASA cancels VIPER lunar rover mission

    19 July 2024 - 20:28

    Azerbaijan guarantees accessible voting in liberated areas for snap elections

    19 July 2024 - 20:16

    Azerbaijan’s COP29 CEO urges limited hydrocarbon use for climate goals

    19 July 2024 - 20:12

    Azerbaijan opens COP29 Academy to train youth in climate action

    19 July 2024 - 20:09

    POLITICO: Kamala Harris allies quietly prepare for potential Biden withdrawal

    19 July 2024 - 20:04

    COP29 Climate Change Champion highlights ongoing efforts to foster inclusivity

    19 July 2024 - 19:55

    Iran criticizes Israeli Knesset resolution as evidence of racism

    19 July 2024 - 19:52

    UN court declares Israeli settlements in West Bank, East Jerusalem illegal

    19 July 2024 - 19:40

    Man severely injured in mine explosion in Azerbaijan’s Kalbajar

    19 July 2024 - 19:28

    Turkish troops neutralise more terrorists in Syria, Iraq


    19 July 2024 - 19:16

    Uzbekistan unveils advanced armored personnel carrier


    19 July 2024 - 19:04

    Azerbaijan promises exemplary COP29 with broad focus on global issues

    19 July 2024 - 18:52

    Russia's breakthrough in UAV technology

    Drone flies with domestic AI chip

    19 July 2024 - 18:40

    Top 10 destinations for Azerbaijani oil

    19 July 2024 - 18:28

    Stoltenberg: Europe must brace for decade-long Ukraine conflict

    19 July 2024 - 18:15

    US unveils new satellite-jamming technology targeting Russian, Chinese ops

    19 July 2024 - 18:02

    Georgian Parliament Chair: No compromise on peace for European integration

    19 July 2024 - 17:50

    China struggles with military AI deployment amid US concerns

    Caliber.Az on YouTube

    19 July 2024 - 17:36

    Azerbaijan revives mining industry in liberated lands

    19 July 2024 - 17:26

    China hits back at NATO for "overstepping boundaries" in meddling Sino-Russian relations

    19 July 2024 - 17:14

    Indian oil giant acquires stakes in Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli, Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan projects

    19 July 2024 - 17:02

    British defence chief says UK won't aid Ukraine in attacking Russian targets

    19 July 2024 - 16:50

    Israel skips Gaza peace talks, frustrating officials who believe deal is near

    19 July 2024 - 16:38

    Israeli military confirms Iranian-made drone strike on Tel Aviv

    Investigation underway

    19 July 2024 - 16:36

    Envoy: Iran to double gas exports to Armenia

    19 July 2024 - 16:26

    How Azerbaijan asserts its global influence?

    President Aliyev in London

    19 July 2024 - 16:14

    Türkiye's strategic pivot towards the West

    Economic incentives and geopolitical maneuvers

    19 July 2024 - 16:02

    Trump urges Democrats to drop charges after recounting assassination attempt

    19 July 2024 - 15:50

    Türkiye set to host upcoming "3+3" foreign ministers meeting

    19 July 2024 - 15:38

    Trump's pick of JD Vance as running mate should alarm Europe

    Opinion by The Telegraph

    19 July 2024 - 15:27

    Envoy: UAE may join Gaza stabilisation mission

    19 July 2024 - 15:15

All news