Are Israel's further attacks on Iran on the table? Shereshevskiy's scenario

Israeli attacks on Iran have proven effective. The US and Israel are interested in their continuation and intensification.

The Israeli drone attack on Iran's Isfahan military plant was “a tremendous success”, The Jerusalem Post reported citing Western intelligence. The Wall Street Journal issued a similar report, also noting that Mossad was behind the attack. The paper cited US officials.

Meanwhile, Russian journalist and Iranist Nikita Smagin points out that Israel's use of the Ukrainian agenda "is a logical tactic to help kill two birds with one stone".

"On the one hand, they get another argument to attack Iranian infrastructure. On the other hand, they can always respond to claims of insufficient support for Ukraine: we are already launching attacks on Iran. Netanyahu has already begun to pursue this path. The other day he told Macron that Israeli operations against Iran were helping Ukraine. Of course, Israel will only attack the targets that are in its interests. It will not risk for the sake of Ukraine's interests," Smagin said.

This reasoning looks logical, but there are a few crucial additions. First, the interests of Israel and Ukraine partly coincide, since Israel, like Ukraine, does not need Iran to produce drones and ballistic missiles. Most likely, it is the factories associated with their production that will become targets for new attacks.

Secondly, Israel was encouraged to supply arms to Ukraine after Russian arms shipments to Iran became known. Netanyahu has already said that his state could provide Ukraine with an Iron Dome air defence system in response to Russian deliveries of Su-35 aircraft to Iran.

How Iran would respond to Israeli attacks? It could in principle respond with missile and drone attacks on Israel, but so far it has not. In the past, Iran has struck Israeli tankers, a rather painful measure since Israel conducts 90 per cent of its trade by sea. However, it would look weak after a direct attack on Iran. And Iran's weakness is likely to entail more bombing of its territory. In the Middle East (or maybe everywhere in the world?) the manifestation of weakness and uncertainty of the enemy means that he is very likely to be utterly defeated.

Israel has already stated that it will not allow Iran to build nuclear weapons. The US, which saw Iran's rejection of the nuclear deal (the deal involves the lifting of US sanctions in exchange for an end to Iran's nuclear weapons programme), clearly intends to encourage and facilitate Israel's policy of pressure through arms, intelligence, and coordination of attacks.

The US, according to Western media outlets, coordinated the latest bombing of Iran with Israel. In addition, just before the attack, the Israelis and the Americans were conducting joint military exercises. The Jerusalem Post notes that they lasted a week, with the parties practicing strikes on targets located in Iran.

The Americans are unlikely to bomb Iran themselves given the standoff with China and Russia. But destroying Iran's missile, nuclear, and, more broadly, defence industry using others would be an option for them.

Today, the US has incentives to push Israel to do this - Iran's nuclear weapons programme and Ukraine. The US does not want Iran to build nuclear weapons. They are also concerned about the emerging alliance between Moscow and Tehran and are seeking to prevent the supply of missiles and drones to the Russian Armed Forces. In any case, the uprising in Iran has made a nuclear deal impossible for the foreseeable future. If the US went for it, it would mean funding a regime that suppresses democratic protests and would deal a serious blow to the Biden administration. Today, therefore, Americans are interested in other ways of influencing Iran.

Thus, a set of factors is taking shape that makes it possible for the Israeli raids to continue. These are US interest, its willingness to assist at the level of intelligence gathering, arms supply, and coordination of attacks, the Israeli determination to prevent Iran (Israel's main adversary in the Middle East) from obtaining nuclear weapons, the possibility of eliminating Iran's missile and drone production program, and finally the weakness that Tehran has shown after the raids.

If Israel decides to methodically destroy Iranian military targets, including headquarters, nuclear facilities, and defence industries, and if it can do so on a growing scale, it could change the balance of power in the region. In addition, it is likely to increase the instability of the Iranian regime.