Armenia is keeping the West's tune by clinging to Russia Having neither the will nor the resources

On the eve of the deployment of the EU civilian mission in Armenia, Yerevan began to make statements, intended to justify this, in fact, anti-Russian demarche in the form of landing in the South Caucasus of a large group of unknown purpose. In Moscow, the future mission is clearly seen as a threat to regional stability and a clear attempt by the West to oust Russia from the region. The recent statements by Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, who reiterated Russia's intention to remain Armenia's main ally in the South Caucasus, also indicate that the Kremlin will react to the machinations of the Armenian leadership playing into the hands of the West.

Zakharova's statements that Brussels is trying to change the security system in the South Caucasus and that its cornerstone is the presence of the Russian military and Armenia's membership in the CSTO are not just a statement of fact, but also an indicator of Moscow's sharp negative attitude to Pashinyan's pro-Western policy and even more so to the involvement of the European Union in the region. The statements by the diplomat that Russian peacekeepers are ensuring peace in Karabakh and that Russian border guards are operating in Armenia, including in the Armenian-Azerbaijani border region, are a targeted message to the European Union and an extra reminder to Yerevan that Moscow will continue to keep it and the whole region in the orbit of its interests.

Zakharova's statements show that Moscow is not only dissatisfied with the position of its outpost in the South Caucasus, but also fully trusts Baku as a strategic ally and partner, for which maintaining regional stability and security is a priority. Moreover, for Russia, it is also important that, unlike Armenia, Azerbaijan, which also pursues an independent and multi-vector policy, is not a member and does not seek membership in any military bloc, demonstrating the constancy of its policy principles. This is one of Baku's strongest arguments, which contributes to preserving the credit of trust of its regional neighbours, in particular Russia.

Russia's closest ally, Armenia, on the other hand, has all but exhausted Moscow's trust and is now trying to resort to political subterfuge and, as they say, get away with it. That is, on the one hand, the Armenian leadership is demonstratively flirting with Brussels and Paris; on the other hand, it is trying to minimise Moscow's discontent by trying to shift the blame to Baku. This is how Yerevan is trying to justify the invitation of a European Union mission to the region to conduct monitoring along the conditional border with Azerbaijan. But Moscow is closely watching what is happening in the region and is still able to distinguish between black and white.

Meanwhile, reports that the EU mission might not be entirely civilian, and that a group of French gendarmes would be present, have added fuel to the fire. It is therefore not surprising that Yerevan's ridiculous explanations that it would be easier for gendarmes by virtue of their profession to report on the situation in the borderland did not find support and understanding in Moscow. Furthermore, according to Armenian media reports, the current EU civilian observer mission will at some stage receive a military component as well. This was stated by Tigran Abrahamyan, a member of the opposition I Have, a representative of the Defence and Security Committee, at a briefing in the National Assembly, which speaks of the reality of the fears of some Russian politicians about the possible future deployment of a NATO military contingent in the South Caucasus. Given these nuances, which are clearly at odds with Russia's interests, it is obvious that statements by Yerevan officials intended to retain at least some vestiges of Moscow's trust are meaningless. In general, in the current situation, Armenia can only count on the support of paid congressmen or MEPs, mostly from France, for example, Nathalie Loiseau. According to CivilNet, this lady said last week that she strongly supports a new EU mission with a broader scope and scale.

"I am pleased that France will provide the mission with eight gendarmes. On 20 February I will be in Armenia. I welcome Armenia's support and cooperation with the mission, which will be our eyes and ears on the ground, and its presence should deter further attacks. I only hope that Azerbaijan will cooperate with the mission in good faith," Loiseau warned with some menace, not ignoring the situation on the Lachin road, around which Armenia continues to create almost universal agitation.

Along with this, the French parliamentarian voiced several key messages to Russia, blaming Russian peacekeepers for inaction, because a real "drama" has been unfolding in front of their eyes for more than 50 days.

"We hear Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's scepticism about EU efforts between Armenia and Azerbaijan. But we also see him taking Azerbaijan's side on the Karabakh issue," said Loiseau, adding that she thought the decision to send a mission to the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan in an extended format was appropriate.

The French parliamentarian probably voiced the EU's common position on Russian policy, not only on the situation on the Lachin road, but also on the negotiation process between Baku and Yerevan in general. Europe is seriously set to become the main mediator in the Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations and is unlikely to limit itself to a two-year mission in the region. And this fact cannot but stress Moscow, especially now, when it is unable to effectively counteract the process that has already been launched and is therefore limited to declarative statements and indirect threats to Armenia. However, Pashinyan's recent statements about the forthcoming EU mission, as well as the phone conversation between the Armenian and Russian foreign ministers, during which the Armenian side expressed its desire to strengthen its alliance with Russia, suggest that no matter how much Armenia looks back at the West, it is not yet daring to break with Russia. Armenia has neither the political will nor the resources to do so.