Armenia's renunciation of territorial claims or struggle for power? Pashinyan and the new constitution

The Armenian government has once again emphasized the necessity of amending the country’s constitution through a nationwide referendum. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan reiterated this in a recent address to the nation. Notably, Armenian authorities have occasionally made ambiguous statements about the possible adoption of a new fundamental law, often under the banner of creating the "real Armenia" envisioned by Pashinyan. This idea was further articulated by the Prime Minister following the introduction of his 14-point "real Armenia" project. Overall, the document carries a declarative tone, with each point advocating for an "ideal" model of the state.

The project includes a fact that is fundamentally important for Azerbaijan. It states that "the real Armenia is the Republic of Armenia with the internationally recognized territory of 29,743 square kilometres." This means that the "real Armenia" concept affirms the belonging of Karabakh to Azerbaijan, which could also be reflected in Armenia's new Constitution. This scenario is possible considering that Nikol Pashinyan has repeatedly publicly acknowledged Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan. Furthermore, in October 2022, in Prague, Pashinyan recognized the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, encompassing 86,600 square kilometres, including the Karabakh region.

Armenia's recognition of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity is an important step, after which corresponding actions should follow to confirm Yerevan's readiness for peace with Baku. As is well known, for this to happen, Armenia must amend its constitution, which still contains territorial claims against Azerbaijan. This is a key demand from Baku on the path to signing a comprehensive peace agreement, which the Armenian side has been avoiding to this day, offering absurd arguments. Now, the Armenian prime minister, in his characteristic contradictory manner, declares the relevance of adopting a new Armenian Constitution, reiterating that it will enshrine the ideology of the "real Armenia." When pondering the goals Pashinyan might have in calling on the Armenian public to hold a referendum and adopt a new constitution, two possible conclusions arise.

The first possibility is that Pashinyan has realized that his political adventure surrounding a truncated peace agreement with Baku has completely collapsed. Therefore, the most likely scenario is that Nikol Pashinyan wants to hold a referendum to adopt a new Armenian Constitution, one that no longer contains clauses regarding territorial claims against Azerbaijan.

The second possibility is that the Armenian prime minister wants to extend his rule by reforming Armenia’s system of governance through the constitution, much like Serzh Sargsyan did. Recall that in July of last year, during an address to the nation on Constitution Day, Pashinyan made the following statement: "The current constitution causes serious social and psychological tension among citizens. Due to well-known circumstances, the citizens of Armenia today do not believe that the existing constitution reflects their views on the rules of life in society and the state. They see it as a document created and imposed by the ruling elite."

At the same time, the Armenian leader justified his decision by stating that "it is not only important what is written in the constitution, but also how it was adopted."

For Azerbaijan, however, it does not matter what form of government Pashinyan seeks to advance through the constitution; this is Armenia's internal affair. What is fundamentally important for us is that Armenia legally enshrines the renouncement of claims on Azerbaijani territories. Whether Pashinyan will be able to resolve the constitutional dilemma once and for all will be revealed in time. For now, all we see is mere talk.