Armenia will quietly return eight villages to Azerbaijan Russian analyst on Caliber.Az

Deputy Director General of "Vestnik Kavkaza" information and analytical agency, Russian political analyst Andrey Petrov has said that the conflict potential in the South Caucasus has decreased to almost zero and no confrontational actions from Armenia can be expected.

This is also because the closure of the Karabakh issue has solved not only strategic problems of Azerbaijan but, strangely enough, of Armenia as well, Petrov said in an interview with Caliber.Az.

“The Karabakh issue was a big problem for Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, as he never had personal interests in Karabakh. He just continued the policy that was laid down long before he came to power. The continuation of policy was forced by sponsors in the West, namely, representatives of the Armenian diaspora, as well as politicians who were interested in creating hotbeds of tension and confrontation on the border with Russia,” the political analyst noted.

“Moreover, Pashinyan solved this dilemma easily for himself. There was no big unrest or coup d'etat in Yerevan after September 19-20, 2023 when the Karabakh separatists announced the dissolution of entities although there were risks. The Armenian previous leadership did not take any actions during that period and it is unclear what it is doing now,” Petrov said.

“As this problem has been solved, Pashinyan has no motive to create it again, for example, in the form of provocations on the conditional Armenian-Azerbaijani border. Therefore, I think that as long as Pashinyan is in power, Armenia will not make any new territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Therefore, there are no prerequisites for conflict in the region,” the political analyst said.

He noted that Armenia will continue the policy of whining about the Armenians who left Karabakh to get more money from Western countries supposedly to provide these “refugees” rather than to annoy Azerbaijan.

“At the same time, Azerbaijan still has questions towards Armenia, namely, a demand for payment of compensation for barbaric damage caused as a result of the occupation of territories, and the return of eight Azerbaijani villages,” the political analyst added.

Petrov thinks that Armenia will return these villages to Azerbaijan “quietly”, without great publicity because Armenia does not need to do anything to return them. Nationalists will not do anything to Pashinyan if he returns those villages. However, he will try to gain some profit during this process.

“Pashinyan is not greatly interested in Azerbaijan. He is interested in opening the border with Türkiye and developing Armenian transport routes through it. However, Türkiye sets a condition to improve relations with Azerbaijan, so the process, apparently, will not move forward,” the Russian expert added.

“Yerevan has virtually no desire to change its strategy, which can be described as a strategy of ‘doing nothing’. Azerbaijan has already done everything, namely, liberated its lands from occupation, returned Karabakh. Pashinyan had to declare that Armenia would not send its troops and engage in hostilities. Therefore, I think that Pashinyan will continue adhering to this position,” Petrov said.

“Yerevan does not even have an interest in delimiting the border, although it wants to restore routes, but this wish is not strong, as Armenia has already become accustomed to living in self-isolation for several decades. Taking into account the loss of territory and economic dynamics, Pashinyan obviously agrees that Armenia will become a country provided with more money by Western countries and diaspora. If you want Armenia to exist, then pay for it,” the political analyst said.

“I would really like Armenia to be a normal country that does not conflict with its neighbours and is successfully integrated into the region. Armenia has the opportunity to behave rationally and live normally by concluding a peace treaty with Azerbaijan and opening its borders, but it has no desire to behave rationally and live normally - that’s the problem. So Pashinyan’s strategy of ‘doing nothing’ will be continued and as a result, we have such a situation when Azerbaijan lives well, having solved all its problems, while Armenia continues to be in isolation,” Petrov said.

He also touched upon the military parade in Khankendi on November 8.

“This parade is a symbol of the new era of Azerbaijan when all problems have been solved and it is possible to develop further without any obstacles. I think we have to comprehend the significance of completely ridding Azerbaijan of the problem of separatism. I was pleased to see Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev standing on the parade ground in Khankendi, greeting the Azerbaijani military. I would like to congratulate Azerbaijan on this important achievement, a unique event in the geopolitical reality of the region,” Petrov added.