Armenian provocations around Nakhchivan: undermining Zangazur Corridor Or attempts to dash peace hopes

Obstacles created by Armenia to the peace with Azerbaijan are spilling over into a broader region amidst intensifying shelling of the Azerbaijani positions in the direction of the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, a southwestern exclave of Azerbaijan on the border with Armenia.

While regular incidents of the same kind triggered by the Armenian military in Karabakh are relatively common, Nakhchivan has increasingly been put on the target over the recent period.

The landlocked republic was most recently subjected to fire in the evening hours on July 10 when the Armenian armed forces deployed various calibre weapons to periodically shell the Azerbaijan Army positions stationed in the directions of the Sadarak region and Nurgut settlement of the Ordubad region of Nakhchivan.

The military of Armenia targeted Ordubad also from the night on July 7 to the early morning on July 8. Also, it attempted to conduct a reconnaissance flight over Nakhchivan. Similar incidents were reported also in June.

The developments around Nakhchivan are arguably testifying to Yerevan’s intention to hinder the construction of the Zangazur Corridor by Azerbaijan, as well as distract Baku’s focus from Karabakh, where there are still illegal formations of the Armenian army.

The Azerbaijani authorities have been pushing for the immediate withdrawal of these gangs from its sovereign lands, however, the demand still goes unfulfilled. Moreover, their withdrawal is one of the key demands put by Azerbaijan in the draft peace treaty. Meanwhile, simultaneously with Nakhchivan, the Azerbaijani military posts in the Khojavand and Khojaly regions in Karabakh also came under fire on July 10.

The rising anger of Azerbaijan over the presence of the illegal armed men in Karabakh is urging Armenia to open a new front of escalations, subsequently, narrow down the road to peace.

In the meantime, the reasons for regular shellings in the direction of Nakhchivan could also be traced in a different case.

Nakchivan Autonomous Republic

Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic is an exclave of Azerbaijan on the country’s southwest corner, surrounded by Armenia, Iran, and Türkiye. Currently, the region is not connected via direct overland routes with mainland Azerbaijan. Nakhchivan became an exclave separated from the Azerbaijani mainland after the Soviet occupation of the South Caucasus region in 1920.Following the region’s incorporation, Soviet rulers transferred some Azerbaijani territories, including its historic region of Zangazur, which borders Nakhchivan, to the newly-created Armenian state.

Armenia’s invasion of Azerbaijan in the early 1990s to occupy the Karabakh region, which is an internationally recognized part of Azerbaijan, has boosted Nakhchivan’s isolation. The full-scale war lasted from 1991 until a ceasefire deal in 1994, and as a result, Armenia occupied 20 per cent of Azerbaijan’s internationally recognized territory – the Karabakh region and seven surrounding districts.

The bloody war claimed the lives of over 30,000 Azerbaijanis and expelled one million more from their homeland. All kinds of energy, electricity and transport connections, including highways and railways to and from Nakhchivan, were closed by Armenia. Overland and air connection with the landlocked republic is available either via Iran in the south or through Turkey in the west.

The Azerbaijani army liberated more than 300 settlements, including five cities from Armenia's decades-old occupation in a 44-day war that kicked off on September 27, 2020, when Armenia's forces deployed in the occupied Azerbaijani lands began shelling the military positions and civilian settlements of Azerbaijan. Intensive deployment of military equipment and troops to the frontline by both sides catapulted the largest clashes between the sides since the ceasefire in 1994.

The military operations ended in a ceasefire statement signed by Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Russia on November 9, 2020. Under the tripartite agreement, Armenia returned the occupied Aghdam, Kalbajar and Lachin districts to Azerbaijan by December 1.

The post-war developments set fertile grounds for revitalizing all economic and transport links in the region. Armenia has agreed to guarantee the safety of transport links between the western regions of Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan in order to organize the unimpeded movement of citizens, vehicles and cargo in both directions.

Based on the agreement, the construction of new transport communications connecting Nakhchivan and the western regions of Azerbaijan – the Zangazur Corridor - will be ensured unconditionally. However, many Armenians, including government officials, analysts, and ordinary citizens, are convinced that the Zangazur Corridor’s launch can put Armenian statehood in jeopardy since they see it as an “encroachment” into the territory of Armenia, a claim rejected by Azerbaijan.

Zangazur Corridor

The Zangazur corridor, a strategic route through the territory of modern-day Armenia, will enable the shortest connection between Azerbaijan’s mainland and its exclave of Nakhchivan. The launch of the multi-modal corridor is said to benefit all regional countries and contribute to the Eurasian trade and transport communications that incorporate the regional economies with a nominal GDP of $1.1 trillion. Chinese authorities have lauded the Zangazur corridor as an important contributor to the implementation of Beijing's multi-trillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative.

Azerbaijan has been actively restoring the railway and highway chunks of the corridor to facilitate its launch, which is scheduled for some time in 2024.

Azerbaijani authorities are convinced that such regional transportation projects as the Zangazur Corridor could foster peace and cooperation and create new opportunities. Baku has been calling on Yerevan to take concrete steps for unblocking the regional transportation links and sign a comprehensive peace treaty covering the mutual recognition of borders and territorial integrity.

But the measures taken by Armenia are quite obviously reflected in the recent developments around Nakhchivan.

In addition to firing incidents, there have also been intentions by Yerevan to annex Nakhchivan. Assistant to the President of Azerbaijan - Head of the Foreign Policy Department of the Azerbaijani Presidential Administration, Hikmet Hajiyev, has recently said that Armenians had wanted to incorporate Nakhchivan into Armenia as “Eastern Armenia”.