Azerbaijan-Israel-USA: Alliance for stability in Caucasus and Middle East Beyond oil and arms

Shortly after Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. elections, experts from Israel's Bar-Ilan University published a study analyzing Baku's role in the context of Azerbaijan-Israel relations, as well as the prospects for developing contacts within the Azerbaijan-Israel-USA triangle. Today, Azerbaijan is the only Muslim country that maintains permanent and comprehensive partnership relations with Israel. Baku is Israel’s sole strategic ally in the Islamic world while simultaneously maintaining friendly relations with the United States and sharing borders with Russia and Iran.

According to a recent report by the Institute for Monitoring Peace and Cultural Tolerance in School Education (IMPACT-se), a British non-profit organization that analyzes school textbooks and curricula worldwide, Azerbaijan has become the first Muslim country to include the definition of antisemitism in its educational materials.

For 30 years, Azerbaijan has been a guarantor of Israel's energy security. In 2024, during the war in Gaza and southern Lebanon, when the IDF required an uninterrupted fuel supply, Baku increased oil exports to its Israeli partners by 55%.

At the same time, Azerbaijan is also the largest importer of Israeli defense products. This generates billions of dollars for Israel’s budget, creating jobs and funding scientific research in the defense sector.

Representatives of all major political factions in Israel acknowledge Azerbaijan’s special role—an uncommon phenomenon in Israeli politics.

Following Donald Trump’s rise to power in the United States, Azerbaijan's significance for the strategic interests of both Israel and the United States has grown even further. This is driven by key trends in Washington’s new foreign policy approach, which seeks to maximize Azerbaijan’s advantages and opportunities.

Trump adopted a strategy of strengthening regional alliances among U.S. allies to reduce American defense expenditures. In this regard, the military-strategic partnership between Israel and Azerbaijan serves as a model example and can be significantly reinforced through the integration of bilateral defense projects.

Baku also plays a crucial role in U.S. plans for a "Greater Middle East," facilitating Israel’s rapprochement with the Gulf monarchies and other Muslim countries. For instance, since 2008, Azerbaijan has served as an unofficial channel of communication between Türkiye and Israel.

Furthermore, Baku and Tel Aviv could contribute to the normalization of U.S.-Russia relations, given that both countries continue to maintain economic and political ties with Moscow.

Based on these premises, experts from the Begin-Sadat Center at Bar-Ilan University have developed a set of recommendations for the Israeli government on advancing trilateral Azerbaijan-U.S.-Israel cooperation in the coming years.

First and foremost, Israel must advocate for Azerbaijan’s interests in the United States, particularly by countering the influence of the Armenian lobby. American Jews should recognize the crucial role this Muslim country plays in Israel’s regional security architecture. According to an assessment made in December 2024 by the leadership of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), Azerbaijan’s long-standing support for Israel has not been adequately acknowledged by the United States.

Moreover, since 1992, the U.S. Congress has enforced Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act, which places Azerbaijan at a disadvantage compared to other post-Soviet republics in receiving American assistance. After the September 11, 2001 attacks, the Bush administration managed to secure only a temporary waiver of this amendment due to the necessity of security cooperation with Azerbaijan. However, to this day, this legal restriction remains an obstacle to the further development of U.S.-Azerbaijan relations. Therefore, Israeli leadership should push for the repeal of this amendment.

Israelis believe that Azerbaijan should be included among the participants of the Abraham Accords. The Muslim countries that signed these agreements in 2020 received approval for U.S. arms supplies and investments from the Washington-established Abraham Fund. Experts highlight the absurdity of the situation in which nations that only recently recognized Israel are granted significant privileges, while Azerbaijan—a key pillar of Israel’s regional security for more than two decades—remains subject to U.S. sanctions.

Azerbaijan’s unique conceptual and practical experience in cooperation with Israel could be extended to other countries in the Middle East, Asia, and Africa. Officials from Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Economy could serve as consultants for the Friedman Center for Peace through Strength and the Abraham Fund. This would enable the launch of new regional projects in energy, agriculture, and healthcare.

A crucial factor in this context is that the United Arab Emirates, one of the initiators and key participants in the Abraham Accords, is also Azerbaijan’s main partner in the Arab world—both in terms of investment volume and the frequency of high-level state visits in 2023–2024.

Another key point in the program is the inclusion of Azerbaijan in the U.S.-Israel partnership for development, investment, and technology—modeled after the existing trilateral cooperation with Morocco. This would encompass defense, artificial intelligence, and cybersecurity.

Israelis believe that Azerbaijan could play a significant role in the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip. President Trump has clearly expressed his desire for Muslim countries to participate in Gaza’s rebuilding efforts. Washington may approach Baku with a proposal to join this project on a humanitarian basis, particularly as a supplier of energy resources necessary for reconstruction. However, experts note that Azerbaijan’s participation would be feasible only if at least several other Muslim countries also take part in the rebuilding efforts.

Finally, particular emphasis is placed on the role of the Heydar Aliyev Foundation in restoring dozens of world-renowned cultural, historical, and religious monuments in France, Germany, Italy, Bulgaria, and the Vatican. Despite Azerbaijan investing millions of dollars in these projects, European countries have not widely acknowledged its contribution to preserving key symbols of Christian civilization. Therefore, Israel could advocate for the creation of a joint cultural fund with Azerbaijan, dedicated to safeguarding the heritage of the three major monotheistic faiths in the Middle East.

In conclusion, experts highlight that their proposed initiatives could strengthen the Azerbaijan-Israel-U.S. partnership, expand regional cooperation, and contribute to stability in both the Caucasus and the Middle East.