Azerbaijani, Armenian leaders at BRICS summit, elections in Georgia, Moldova and Middle East tension Weekly review by Caliber.Az 

Caliber.Az has prepared another episode of “Sobitiya” ("Events") show with Azerbaijani political analyst Murad Abiyev about key news of the week related to Azerbaijan and countries. 

AZERBAIJAN - ARMENIA

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev visited Russia’s Kazan city to participate in the sixteenth BRICS summit. During the summit, President Aliyev held several bilateral meetings and also delivered a speech at the Outreach/BRICS+ session. The president emphasised Azerbaijan's commitment to the principle of multilateralism in international relations, citing the successful implementation of this policy through the country's presidency in the Non-Aligned Movement as an example. 

President Aliyev also highlighted Azerbaijan's crucial role in Eurasian transportation projects and emphasised the country’s connecting role in the dialogue between the Global South and the Global North. President Aliyev's meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on the sidelines of the BRICS summit is of particular interest. 

The leaders of the two countries discussed advancing their bilateral peace agenda, including a peace treaty, delimitation and demarcation of borders, and other issues of mutual interest. The foreign ministers were instructed to continue bilateral negotiations on the peace agreement and the establishment of interstate relations, with the aim of finalising and concluding it as soon as possible. Several factors show that the meeting in Kazan was not a formality. 

The negotiations lasted an  hour and a half. Moreover, the foreign ministers of both countries, the co-chairs of the delimitation and demarcation commission, as well as Assistant of the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Head of Foreign Policy Affairs Department of the Presidential Administration Hikmet Hajiyev. This suggests that the sides engaged in a detailed discussion about the next steps in advancing the peace process.

There is an interesting aspect that the meeting on the sidelines of BRICS was held shortly after US President Joe Biden sent letters to the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia urging them to finalise a peace agreement as soon as possible. Biden's message also included the willingness of the US to take bold steps to promote peace. 

There was a one-and-a-half-hour meeting on the sidelines of BRICS. It appears that the West and the Global South are competing to become symbolic champions of peace on the global stage. BRICS As for the BRICS summit in Russia’s Kazan city, the 43-page Kazan Declaration was adopted. Although this document does not feature groundbreaking resolutions, such as the creation of a new settlement currency, it nonetheless conveys a general impression that the Global South continues its process of consolidation. This is the main achievement of the Kazan summit.            

Georgia

Neighboring Georgia was holding parliamentary election on October 26. The preliminary results were announced in the evening. This election was among the most consequential in Georgia's history since gaining independence, as the outcome not only determined the composition of the parliament but also shaped the country's developmental trajectory for many years to come.

The election was held amid severe polarisation among political forces, five months after widespread pro-Western protests against the so-called "foreign agents law". Following the adoption of this law, Brussels effectively froze Georgia's EU accession process, while the West has continued its criticism of the country's government. 

Fueled by support from abroad and based on social survey data, pro-Western forces have preemptively announced both their impending victory and their claims that the ruling party was prepared to rig the election in its favour. All of this suggests that tensions may once again spill into the streets of Tbilisi in the coming days.

Moldova

Presidential election and a referendum on the country's integration with the EU were held simultaneously in Moldova last week. Both votes starkly highlighted the divisions within the country. 

Euro-integration was approved by a margin of just a few thousand votes, representing less than half a per cent of those who participated. The presidential election did not result in a victory for any candidate, as none secured the required majority of votes. Consequently, the country is headed for a runoff, scheduled for November 3. In this round, incumbent president and pro-EU supporter Maia Sandu will compete against independent candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo, who is backed by the Party of Socialists. 

Ukraine – Russia 

The Russian army continues its offensive in Ukraine. Reports indicate a critical situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Kurakhove and Selydove in the Donetsk region, as well as a challenging situation around Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region. Russian President Vladimir Putin himself has quickly announced the success of the Russian military in the Kursk region. In an interview with "Russia-1" state TV channel, he stated that "approximately 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers are blocked in the Kursk region."

This critical situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces appears to be the reason for US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin's visit to Ukraine. In Kyiv, Austin announced the supply of new weapons to Ukraine worth $400 million. 

Washington's primary objective is to prevent a breakthrough by Russian forces before the US presidential election on November 5, as such an event could adversely affect the approval ratings of the Democratic candidate.

Middle East

Israel continues its operation in southern Lebanon, with reports indicating that the ultimate goal is to establish a buffer zone along the border with Israel. After a week of planning, Israel launched an attack on Iran on October 26. 

According to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), the airstrikes targeted military plants involved in the production of rockets used to strike Israel. Moreover, missile complexes and other facilities that could "restrict the operational freedom of Israeli air forces in Iran" were also targeted. Israel has struck, and now it's Iran's turn. Washington is likely to urge Tehran not to respond before November 5. 

This is especially relevant given that, whether intentionally or not, the US seems to have assisted the Iranians in preparing for an Israeli airstrike. Reports indicate that Pentagon data regarding Israel’s plans for retaliation against Iran was leaked online. One could certainly imagine that this happened without American knowledge; however, let’s not be naive. 

The more skeptical might also suggest that Israel was aware of the situation as well, possibly to avoid a major escalation. This seems plausible. The key question is whether Tehran and Tel Aviv will be willing to continue strikes after a new US president is elected.