China's nuclear buildup: Strategic move to undermine US alliances, reshape Asia-Pacific power

An article by Foreign Affairs analyzes the growing nuclear arsenal of China and its strategic objectives. It explores how Beijing’s nuclear buildup is not just about military power but also about pursuing broader geopolitical ambitions that challenge the existing global order, particularly in Asia.

The article underscores that China’s nuclear arsenal is part of a larger plan to reshape the global balance of power in its favor. The primary focus is on China’s strategic goal of establishing dominance in the western Pacific and extending its influence across Eurasia and Africa. A crucial part of this plan involves neutralizing the US and its network of allies in the region, which are seen as impediments to Beijing’s aspirations.

China’s geographic isolation in the Pacific, surrounded by US allies and military bases, is seen as a significant challenge to its ambitions. The article compares China’s situation to previous powers, such as Napoleonic France and Imperial Japan, which were similarly constrained by coastal powers. These historical examples inform China’s strategy, which involves gradually weakening the US-led alliance system in Asia.

One of the central points in the analysis is that China’s nuclear expansion is not merely aimed at military deterrence but at exerting coercive pressure on US allies in Asia. By developing a formidable nuclear arsenal, Beijing hopes to use its weapons to destabilize the US alliance system, without necessarily engaging in direct conflict. This is a critical shift from the traditional military competition, as China is leveraging its growing nuclear capabilities to intimidate its neighbors and weaken US credibility in the region.

The article emphasizes the increasing sophistication of China’s nuclear forces, including its land-based missiles and precise targeting capabilities. This buildup, coupled with China’s growing military prowess, has led to a sense of anxiety among US allies like Japan, who fear that the US might be less willing to intervene in the face of nuclear threats from China. The concern is that China’s rising capabilities could cause the US to become risk-averse, diminishing its role as a security guarantor in the region.

The author argues that the US response to China’s nuclear buildup has been insufficient. While American analysts have focused on the arms race and whether China’s nuclear expansion is a direct counter to the US, the true strategic aim of China’s nuclear policy is often overlooked. China’s aim is to destabilize the regional status quo by neutralizing the US alliances and preventing American intervention in its core interests.

The article suggests that US policy has been reactive rather than proactive, with a failure to address the larger geopolitical context of China’s nuclear expansion. This reactive approach risks further eroding American influence in the Asia-Pacific region and undermining its alliances, especially as China continues to apply nuclear-backed pressure on its neighbors.

The piece also highlights how China is using its nuclear capabilities to apply pressure on countries like Japan and Taiwan. Beijing has long sought to alter the status quo in Taiwan and the South China Sea, using both military and economic pressure to achieve its goals. The article suggests that China’s nuclear buildup gives it the ability to escalate threats of limited nuclear strikes, particularly to deter US or Japanese military intervention in regional disputes. This strategy of nuclear coercion aims to force US allies to distance themselves from the US, making them more vulnerable to Chinese influence.

To counter China’s growing nuclear leverage, the article advocates for a more comprehensive US strategy that goes beyond military deterrence. The US must exploit its competitive advantages, particularly in terms of its alliances, missile defense capabilities, and technological edge. The author suggests a multidimensional approach that combines military, economic, and political strategies to counter China’s ambitions.

Enhancing missile defense and undersea warfare in the region, as well as redeploying nuclear-armed cruise missiles, would strengthen US credibility with its allies.

Washington should deepen trade relations with regional partners and reduce economic dependencies on China, especially in sectors like critical minerals and pharmaceuticals, which China currently dominates.

The US should confront China’s domestic political vulnerabilities, particularly its internal repression, and use these to undermine Beijing’s regional ambitions. The article suggests that the US should leverage its values and support for dissidents in China to distract Xi Jinping from his geopolitical goals.

The article concludes that China’s nuclear expansion is a key tool in its broader geopolitical strategy to challenge the US-led world order and reshape the balance of power in Asia. The United States must recognize the deeper strategic motivations behind China’s nuclear buildup and respond with a countervailing strategy that strengthens its alliances, enhances its competitive advantages, and exploits China’s vulnerabilities. Failing to do so could result in the erosion of US influence in the Asia-Pacific and the gradual disintegration of its alliances in the region.

By Vafa Guliyeva