Reuters: Ukraine's drone attacks hit 17% of Russia’s refining capacity

Ukraine has intensified its drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and export infrastructure, targeting a key sector of President Vladimir Putin’s economy in a bid to demonstrate its ability to fight back as the United States attempts to broker a peace agreement.

The strikes have disrupted Russia’s oil processing and export operations, triggered gasoline shortages in several regions, and are widely seen as retaliation for Moscow’s recent gains on the battlefield and its relentless attacks on Ukraine’s gas and power facilities.

Analysts note that Kyiv’s escalation aims to raise the stakes ahead of potential peace negotiations and to challenge narratives suggesting Ukraine has already lost the war, particularly following the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Alaska earlier this month.

According to Reuters estimates, Ukrainian drone attacks on 10 facilities have disrupted about 17% of Russia’s refining capacity, equivalent to 1.1 million barrels of oil per day. The drone campaign has also redirected more Russian crude toward exports at a time when Washington is pressuring China and India to reduce their purchases of Russian oil.

The timing of the attacks coincides with Russia’s seasonal peak in gasoline demand, driven by tourism and agricultural needs. Even before the strikes, Moscow had tightened its gasoline export ban in July to cope with surging domestic consumption.

Some regions, including Russian-controlled parts of Ukraine, southern Russia, and even the Far East, have reported gasoline shortages. Motorists have been forced to switch to more expensive fuel grades due to the lack of regular A-95 gasoline.

“We will endure, but this is a big hit to our family budget, a big hit. It’s really noticeable,” said Svetlana Bazhanova, a resident of Sevastopol, Crimea’s largest city, which Russia annexed in 2014.

In Vladivostok, a port city in Russia’s Far East, long queues have formed at filling stations, Reuters reported. Local authorities attributed the shortages to a seasonal influx of tourists.

While the affected refineries have only partially lost capacity, the situation could still strain domestic fuel supplies, warned Sergei Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre and former executive at Gazprom Neft.

Oil and gas revenues account for about a quarter of Russia’s budget, helping to finance a 25% increase in defence spending this year, the highest level since the Cold War. Although Western sanctions have forced Moscow to sell oil at discounted rates and end most gas sales to Europe, Russia has continued producing record quantities of artillery and other weapons, according to US military officials.

The war has evolved into a grinding battle of attrition, with both Russia and Ukraine launching drone and missile strikes deep behind enemy lines in efforts to undermine each other’s economies.

Despite sanctions, Russia’s economy has so far remained resilient, though growth has slowed, prompting concern within the Kremlin.

In recent weeks, Ukrainian drones have struck Lukoil’s Volgograd refinery, Rosneft’s Ryazan facility, and multiple plants in the Rostov, Samara, Saratov, and Krasnodar regions. A fire at Russia’s Novoshakhtinsk refinery continued to burn on Monday following a Ukrainian drone strike.

Ukrainian drones have also targeted the Druzhba pipeline and Novatek’s Ust-Luga export terminal and fuel processing complex on the Baltic Sea.

By Tamilla Hasanova