Historic drop in diamond production raises market concerns

Global diamond production is forecast to fall below 100 million carats in 2025–2026, marking the lowest level in over 30 years.

According to international reports cited by Caliber.Az, global output is expected to reach 98–99 million carats in 2025, down from 105 million carats in 2024, and could decline further to 95 million carats in 2026. The last time diamond production fell below 100 million carats was in 1989. Analysts attribute the decline to the depletion of existing mines and deliberate production cuts by major companies aimed at supporting prices and profitability.

Industry statistics indicate that the average diamond price in 2025 was approximately $116 per carat, down from $120 in 2024 and $159 in 2022. Despite lower production, demand for diamond jewellery continues to grow, with the global market expanding from $76 billion in 2018 to over $82 billion in 2023–2025. Growth is driven primarily by an increasing number of wealthy buyers and a shift in demand toward the Asia-Pacific region.

Against this backdrop, significant developments are unfolding at De Beers, one of the world’s leading diamond producers. In May, Anglo American, a British mining company and De Beers shareholder since 1926, announced plans to sell its 85% stake, while the remaining 15% is owned by the government of Botswana.

In July, Botswana’s President, Duma Boko, expressed concerns about the company’s inefficiency, stating that the country is “going bankrupt” due to De Beers’ operations, and proposed taking diamond sales under state control. Experts, however, question the financial feasibility of such a move, as Botswana’s foreign exchange reserves have dropped to $3.5 billion, while acquiring the stake would require substantially more funds.

Meanwhile, Angola has also explored the possibility of acquiring a minority stake in De Beers. The Angolan state-owned diamond company Endiama, which is involved in mining, processing, and sales, submitted a formal request to Anglo American regarding the purchase.

As global diamond production faces historic lows and key ownership stakes in major producers are under consideration, the diamond market enters a period of strategic uncertainty, with price stabilisation, investment decisions, and regional control of resources likely to shape the sector in the coming years.

By Tamilla Hasanova