China’s old playbook meets Trump’s new focus A brewing battle for Latin America

In a bold and somewhat unexpected move, the second Trump administration has turned its gaze firmly toward Latin America, injecting new life into a region often overlooked in broader U.S. foreign policy. With high-level visits by top officials like Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Washington is signalling a revived “Americas First” agenda. Yet as Foreign Policy reveals in a compelling new analysis, while the U.S. has changed gear, China is doubling down on its old tactics—even as cracks begin to show in Beijing’s regional strategy.

The recent China-CELAC summit illustrates the contrast starkly. While President Xi Jinping announced $9.2 billion in new loans and promoted cooperation in infrastructure, energy, and digital technologies, the offer fell well short of earlier commitments. Xi's emphasis on “solidarity” and governance training—especially through the shadowy Communist Party’s International Liaison Department—showcases China’s ongoing soft power push. However, much of Beijing’s approach appears recycled, offering little innovation in the face of Washington’s renewed assertiveness.

Still, the article points out, China is not without leverage. In countries like Brazil and Colombia, Beijing continues to build influence. Brazilian President Lula da Silva’s state visit yielded dozens of agreements and revived discussions around ambitious infrastructure projects like the Bioceanic Corridor. Meanwhile, Colombia’s leftist President Gustavo Petro stunned many by announcing his country’s accession to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), despite tepid economic prospects and mounting domestic crises. Beijing sees these developments as proof that its steady, if unoriginal, diplomacy can still pay dividends—especially under ideologically aligned or U.S.-skeptical leaders.

Yet China’s efforts are far from flawless. The promised investments are increasingly constrained by domestic economic headwinds in China, and its reliance on opaque governance training or Communist Party narratives carries limited appeal in a region where democratic norms still hold sway. Moreover, concerns over Chinese dumping—underscored by Washington’s imposition of hefty tariffs—highlight growing trade tensions. Even as U.S. markets close, Chinese exports to Latin America surged by 17 per cent in April, revealing how Beijing exploits remaining access points to offload surplus goods.

Crucially, Foreign Policy warns that China is unlikely to relinquish its foothold. Support from autocratic regimes in Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba will continue, while Beijing intensifies its courtship of left-leaning governments in Brazil, Colombia, and potentially Mexico. The Trump administration, meanwhile, is advised to mobilise private-sector champions like BlackRock, reinforce its support for pro-U.S. democracies in the region, and set clearer technological priorities to counter Beijing’s influence.

Ultimately, Latin America is becoming an increasingly contested frontier in the U.S.–China rivalry. While many countries may prefer nonalignment, the escalating strategic competition will make neutrality harder to sustain. As both superpowers dig in—with Washington bringing fresh momentum and Beijing reverting to familiar tools—the region finds itself at the crossroads of a new geopolitical struggle with global implications.

By Vugar Khalilov