China’s rising influence in the wake of US aid cuts Battle for soft power

The U.S. foreign aid apparatus has been dramatically weakened under the Trump administration, creating a vacuum that China has eagerly moved to fill. As U.S. foreign aid programs, particularly through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), have been slashed, China’s diplomatic and economic influence in key regions—especially Southeast Asia—has soared.

A recent article by the Council on Foreign Relations delves into the significant repercussions of these changes, focusing on China’s swift rise to prominence in global aid, trade, and soft power, capitalizing on the U.S.'s diminishing influence.

US decline and China's opportunity

Since the Trump administration took office, drastic cuts to U.S. foreign aid have resulted in widespread closures of USAID programs, including critical shutdowns in regions where China has been increasingly active. The article highlights how, in Southeast Asia, China has not only outpaced the U.S. in trade but has also made substantial strides in diplomacy and soft power, winning concessions from countries like Malaysia and Indonesia. This shift is partly driven by growing discontent with U.S. policies, particularly regarding the Gaza war and the perception of U.S. inconsistency.

As U.S. influence wanes, China has capitalized on the opportunity to deepen its economic ties and expand its presence through infrastructure projects, humanitarian aid, and strategic investments. The article cites examples like China’s vaccine donations during the COVID-19 pandemic and its financing of major infrastructure projects, including the Phnom Penh-Sihanoukville Expressway, which further strengthen its influence in the region. The rapid growth of Chinese car makers in Southeast Asia also signifies the broader economic shift taking place.

Decline of US soft power

Beyond just trade and investment, the article emphasizes how the U.S. has increasingly lost its appeal as a model for political reform, cultural influence, and higher education. As U.S. policies appear erratic and disconnected from regional priorities, Southeast Asian countries have begun turning to alternative sources of influence, especially China. Beijing’s ability to seamlessly integrate its financial power with soft power initiatives, like funding education scholarships and providing humanitarian aid, gives it a strong edge over the U.S., which is struggling to maintain its global presence.

China Steps In

With the U.S. pulling back, China is positioning itself as the new leader in aid and development, replacing the U.S. in several regions where USAID has exited. The article concludes with the assertion that China’s influence will only continue to grow, particularly in Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America, as the U.S. faces challenges in its foreign aid strategy and global leadership role.

By Vugar Khalilov