China sets 2029 reform goal amid global and domestic pressures

Katsuji Nakazawa of Nikkei Asia analyzes the implications of China's new 2029 reform goal, suggesting it reflects President Xi Jinping's concerns about both domestic and international challenges.

The Chinese Communist Party's recent four-day meeting concluded without significant economic initiatives, but it introduced a politically noteworthy reform target to be achieved by 2029.

Nakazawa points out that the 2029 goal can be interpreted in two ways. Some analysts see it as a strategic move by Xi to extend his rule beyond the 2027 national congress, ensuring he remains in power to oversee the reforms. Others view it as a preparation for the U.S.-China decoupling, particularly if Donald Trump, known for his hardline stance on China, returns to the presidency in 2025.

The year 2029 is significant as it marks the 80th anniversary of the People's Republic of China. The reform target allows Xi to declare the completion of reforms by this milestone, regardless of the political and economic landscape at the time. This flexibility is crucial for Xi, especially if he aims to maintain his leadership beyond 2027. The decrease in the number of mentions of Xi's name and ideology in recent communiques suggests a shift in the political climate, reflecting the country's current economic difficulties.

Nakazawa notes that the 2029 reform goal could serve as a tactic for Xi to secure his position. By setting this deadline, Xi can argue that his continued leadership is necessary to achieve these reforms, especially if his achievements are questioned at the 2027 congress. This strategy could prevent internal criticism and bolster his bid to remain in power.

Additionally, the 2029 target is seen as a response to potential challenges posed by a second Trump presidency. Xi's administration is preparing for a scenario where the U.S. and China further decouple, emphasizing self-reliance and the development of key industrial and supply chains. The recent plenum resolution underscores this focus, highlighting plans to bolster strategic industries and national reserves.

Nakazawa's analysis suggests that Xi's 2029 reform goal is a multifaceted strategy aimed at addressing both internal and external pressures. By setting a long-term target, Xi aims to navigate the complex political landscape, ensure his continued leadership, and prepare China for potential geopolitical challenges. This approach allows Xi to maintain control and project strength, even amid economic uncertainties and international tensions.

Katsuji Nakazawa, a Tokyo-based senior staff member and editorial writer at Nikkei, has extensive experience in China, having spent seven years there as a correspondent and later serving as the China bureau chief. In 2014, he was honored with the Vaughn-Ueda International Journalist prize.