"Chisinau's message to Moscow: We are out of your dispute with Ukrainians, so please don't bother us" Caliber.Az interview with Victor Josu

Caliber.Az presents an interview with Victor Josu, Moldovan statesman and politician, ex-member of the Moldovan Parliament.

- Victor Ivanovich, what is the reason for the sharp rise of tension in the Transnistrian region of Moldova? What processes are taking place in this region, and who is behind them?

From the moment the Russian Federation launched the so-called "special military operation" in Ukraine, it was clear that sooner or later the tension would affect the Transnistrian region as well. And the reason is obvious - the presence of a contingent of Russian troops here. Both as part of the peacekeeping forces in the zone of the former military conflict in the Dniester region in 1992, and the Russian servicemen involved in guarding the large number of ammunition depots near the village of Kolbasna that have been stored there since World War II.

Almost all of these servicemen are local natives who have received Russian citizenship. However, in this case, that is, after February 24, they are representatives of the enemy troops for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, another irritant and potential object of clashes. It is unknown whether the Ukrainian Armed Forces are planning such clashes today, but even regardless of the plans of the Ukrainian military, there are other forces that benefit from maintaining the hotbed of tensions on the left bank of the Dniester.

For example, the Ukrainian secret services, or even not so much them, as their Western handlers, as well as various kinds of Ukrainian nationalist paramilitary groups, etc., may be interested in this. Given the uncontrolled flow of refugees that began to penetrate both Transnistria and the rest of Moldova with the outbreak of hostilities, we cannot rule out the infiltration of individuals with sabotage purposes. I also do not exclude those certain forces within the unrecognized "TMR" itself may also have a certain interest, trying in this way to attract the attention of the Russian military command to Transnistria. But all this, I emphasize, is only an assumption.

On the other hand, the growing tension in the Transnistrian region is obviously disadvantageous for both the current Moldovan authorities and the "TMR authorities". Both do not need a war on their territory. Another matter is that as the theater of operations in Ukraine expands towards the west, both the former and the latter will be less and less able to influence the course of events. In the current situation, we can only hope for God.

- Do you suppose that Russia could cut a land route to Transnistria through Ukrainian territory?

- Today, such a scenario no longer seems unbelievable. Yes, while the main military actions are unfolding in Donbass, Russia describes this as the first phase of a "special operation", the task of which is the complete cleansing of "LDPR" (Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics) territory from Ukrainian troops and from any Ukrainian influence whatsoever. But representatives of the Russian generals recently announced the task of the next phase of the "special operation": to establish control of the Russian Federation over the entire territory of the Black Sea coast of Ukraine, let us say, from the Don to the Danube.

If this task is solved, it will mean that Russia has a land route to Transnistria.

- So, you don't see the notorious hand of the West in trying to fuel a new war in Transnistria?

- I can only say more or less definitely about the "Moldovan hand". The armed forces of the Republic of Moldova are not ready to participate in real combat operations. And I am not even referring to the military aspect, because I am not an expert in these issues, but in terms of moral aspect, the state of the so-called fighting spirit of the Moldovan military, which as far as I can tell, is at an extremely low level. Moldovans do not want to fight.

Of course, in case of any enemy attack on the territory of the Republic of Moldova, our National Army will take some action to defend this territory. But today, such a scenario is considered by everybody in Chisinau as absolutely undesirable. And no matter who and what may think about it in Kyiv, Bucharest, London, or Washington. Moreover, the example of how the war in Ukraine is unfolding after February 24 proves it very clearly: the NATO countries are ready to provide any help in finance, military equipment, armament to any party that would risk fighting with Russia, but not in the form of participation of their military contingents in such a war.

- Does Moldova have a chance to join NATO, and what factors can make it possible?

- The Republic of Moldova had no chance for it even till February 24, 2022, and after the beginning of the so-called "special operation," there are no chances at all. Everyone in Chisinau understands this very well, including our current pro-Western government. It is no coincidence that President Maia Sandu, our Foreign Minister Nicu Popescu, and other officials are increasingly voicing the thesis of Moldova's military-political neutrality, which is enshrined in its Constitution.

Of course, today such messages are firstly addressed to the Russian leadership, and they are clear: "the Moldovans are out of your dispute with your Ukrainian brothers, so we kindly ask you not to bother us."

It is clear also that such a position of Chisinau irritates Kyiv, which has made more or less transparent hints that Ukraine expects more from Moldova. But the regime of Maia Sandu cannot afford to do more than express solidarity with Zelensky and verbally condemn the Russian "special operation".

- What is your forecast for Ukraine? Do you see an end to this war and how it may end?

- It is hardly worth predicting the evolution of any war. Even generals do not do this. The most they dare to do is to draw up plans for military operations to which the war then makes adjustments, sometimes significant ones, overturning the original plans. The only thing I can say today is that the end of the war in Ukraine is not yet in sight.