“Confrontation between Armenia and Russia inevitable” Expert opinions on Caliber.Az

Relations between Russia and Armenia are still far from normalization as evidenced by the latest statements by Armenia’s top officials. Armenia is looking for new partners because Moscow is not fulfilling its obligations as an ally, especially over the recent months, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan says.

“These events essentially led us to a decision that we need to diversify our security relationships, and we are now trying to do it,” he said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.

In this regard, Pashinyan added that he does not see any advantages in the presence of Russian military bases in Armenia.

Right before it, a scandal erupted in connection with the release of the television program “Куклы наследника Тутти” (Heir Tutti’s dolls), aired on the Russian state Channel One. They called it “Nikol Pashinyan: A harbinger of trouble,” where actions and statements of the Armenian prime minister were discussed with offensive remarks. The Armenian Foreign Ministry presented Russian Ambassador Sergei Kopyrkin with a note of protest over the program about Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

Armenian Parliament Speaker Alen Simonyan did not stand aside either. He, one might say, added fuel to the fire.

“With reference to the Armenian-Russian relations, the question needs to be put to the Russian side, because we have always behaved within the framework of decent rhetoric. And it is not just about this TV program; was this the first time? What about the offensive statements by the Russian Foreign Ministry, and the insults from well-known propagandists? The fact is that they are always trying to do something in our society, which is quite compact, informed and democratic, and they get the opposite effect. I don’t know who advise them, but both that program and their statements create the opposite effect in Armenia. Next time, let them think twice before doing such things,” the Armenian speaker threatened.

The rhetoric, as we see, is irreconcilable on both sides. Pashinyan is already openly saying that Armenia is looking for new partners, and that he does not see the point in the Russian military presence in his country. Russia is making harsh assessments of the Armenian leadership’s behavior. How does this all threaten to end? Should we expect Armenia to leave the CSTO and break the contract on the presence of the Russian military in the country? But will it come to that point? Will Pashinyan reconsider his stance? Or will there be a political revolution in Armenia?

Well-known foreign experts shared their thoughts on these trends with Caliber.Az.

Prof Alexander Rahr of the WeltTrends Institute for International Policy (Potsdam) believes that Russia has indeed rearranged its priorities in the Caucasus region.

“And this decision is Putin’s personally. He desperately needs a strategic partnership with Turkey in the region, just as he needs a balance with China in Central Asia. Azerbaijan, as an ally of Turkey, gains more importance in Moscow’s eyes than Armenia, which has lost its strategic importance for Putin. Russia is connected with Azerbaijan by some kind of energy alliance. Turkey is becoming the only hub for trading Russian gas with Europe, but Erdogan will also pump Azerbaijani energy resources to the West via the Southern Corridor,” the professor said.

In these matters, especially in the conflict with Turkey and Azerbaijan, Armenia has become a kind of burden for Russian interests in the Caucasus, he believes.

“But the speed with which Moscow is distancing itself from Yerevan is still surprising. However, it will not come to a break in relations. It is unlikely that in its policy Armenia can rely on protection and alliance with the United States and the European Union. Washington and Brussels are no less focused on cooperation with Baku, as with Yerevan. Armenia will remain in the CSTO, but this organization itself is losing its significance. Actually, today only Belarus can be considered a real ally of Russia in the CSTO,” Rahr emphasized.

Ilya Kusa, an analyst at the Ukrainian Institute of the Future, believes that, in principle, the situation is developing quite logically and consistently.

“After the 2020 war, the question increasingly began to be raised in Armenia regarding the advisability of a further military-political alliance with Russia, since it did not fulfill its obligations over the next three years. Therefore, in principle, claims against Russia accumulated, and especially after the start of the war in Ukraine, since the Russian Federation tried to persuade Armenia to support its invasion.

Yerevan has refused, which created additional friction between Putin and Pashinyan, and at some point, the Armenian government began to take concrete steps towards a gradual withdrawal from the alliance with Russia. Starting with the various demarches that Pashinyan staged at meetings and contacts within the CSTO and the CIS, and ending with recent statements in the Western press. In them, he questioned the presence of Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh, and the Russian military bases on the territory of Armenia, and in general, the very attachment of Armenia to Russia, which he called a strategic mistake,” the political expert recalled.

He thinks that the situation will develop the same way in the coming months and years, under Pashinyan and even without him - because, in principle, this is a request from a significant part of the Armenian society to update foreign policy, that is, to reorient it so that Armenia itself, which now has the opportunity to get rid of the Karabakh problem, has reoriented its foreign policy towards the West or into a more multi-vector format.

“Russia, of course, will try to prevent this, either by shaking the situation politically, through part of the Armenian opposition (although they have not succeeded in this yet, since the opposition is organizationally weak), or through the creation of political projects alternative to Pashinyan. For example, maybe from part of his team, or by some other methods. The question is simply to find people, who would be acceptable to the Armenian society and legitimate in its eyes. Or through some kind of forceful action. Although, it seems to me that it will be difficult for Moscow to do this, given that it is now tied up in the war in Ukraine. So, I think this whole story is leading to an inevitable confrontation between Armenia and Russia. This is the inevitable price that Armenia will have to pay for its foreign policy freedom,” Kusa concluded.