Demographic decline dooms Armenia to depopulation What about promised 5 million people?

According to the data published on October 27 by Armenia's Statistical Committee, the birth rate in the republic continues to decline, at the same time the number of new marriages has decreased, and the number of divorces, on the contrary, has increased. The hitherto insurmountable consequences of the pandemic crisis and recession, the military catastrophe of November 2020 and the high inflation rate associated with the Ukrainian conflict and the reduction of trade with Russia and other countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) have reduced almost all social indicators, increasing poverty and unemployment. The feeling of hopelessness increases the outflow of the able-bodied part of the Armenian population from the country.

The fact that the birth rate in Armenia continues to decline steadily is also indicated by the data of the Statistical Committee: in January-August of this year, 22,964 babies were born in the republic, which is 476 less than in the same period of 2021. This is not surprising, since the process of demographic decline in Armenia has been a steady trend for more than a decade, and similar negative processes have been observed even in relatively prosperous years. Well, now, against the background of unprecedented socio-economic problems, the process of destruction of key social cells – families - has accelerated in the "land of stones", without which there can be no question of any improvement in birth rates (by the way, a big hello to Pashinyan's promise to bring the population of Armenia to five million people). This is confirmed by the research of the Statistical Committee: for eight months of this year, a total of 10,880 marriages were concluded in the country, 382 fewer than a year earlier. And the number of divorces for the same period amounted to 2,981, an increase of 90 compared to last year's figures.

    
Thus, against the background of the long-term demographic crisis, Armenia has approached the threshold of depopulation, that is, to the stage when the mortality rate exceeds the birth rate. The danger of a further decline in the birth rate is very high, according to the Armenian Labour and Social Security Ministry, since last year the generation of the 2000s began to marry, whose number is 40 per cent less than the generation of the 1980s. There will be fewer marriages and new families, and the birth rate will decrease accordingly, since, according to surveys, today the overwhelming majority of Armenian families cannot afford more than one child, primarily due to economic and social problems.

And, apparently, attempts to pull the republic out of the demographic pit are absolutely unsuccessful. Despite all efforts to revive the post-pandemic economy of Armenia, which suffered a crushing military defeat in 2020, the government of the "reformers" has not managed to overcome the long-standing barriers that have prevented the republic from fully integrating into the economic and infrastructural space of the region for three decades. Armenia's lack of involvement in the regional system of division of labour, lack of access to nodal transport hubs and sources of affordable energy due to the stubborn unwillingness to normalise diplomatic and trade and economic ties with Türkiye and Azerbaijan, results in a decrease in profitability and an increase in the cost of production, not to mention a reduction in the export opportunities of the "apricot republic".

On the other hand, the narrowness of the domestic market, the low level of solvency of the population, corruption, lack of labour resources and the outflow of qualified specialists deprive the prospects of attracting foreign investment in the country's industrial sector.

Another negative factor causing serious damage to the economy and social stability in Armenia is related to the sanctions pressure on Russia, squeezing the Russian labour market like a shagreen skin and, as a result, reducing the volume of remittances from Armenian migrant workers. Thus, only in the first third of the year, more than 185,700 Armenian citizens returned home from Russian earnings and it is expected that by the end of this year, the reduction in the volume of remittances from migrant workers may reach 40 per cent. All this, together with the inflationary growth in the food segment that has exceeded 20 per cent, further reduces the effective demand in the Armenian consumer market, thereby increasing the negative effect of unemployment. The situation in the Armenian labour market is very difficult: Thus, in the October report of the international rating agency Standard & Poor's Global Ratings, according to the results of this year, the unemployment rate in the republic is expected to be at the level of 16.8 per cent and will be approximately the same over the next three years.

In the current conditions, we are no longer talking about an increase in the birth rate, but about the elementary preservation of the population, by hook or by crook, striving to leave a country in distress. Such trends were observed so sharply in the 90s when after gaining independence the republic experienced a wave of mass emigration. The decline of the population leaving abroad continued throughout the new century, noticeably increasing during periods of global crises. In particular, it was the migration factor that played a key role in reducing the population of Armenia from 3.63 million in 1992 to about 2 million today. According to various estimates, over the past 30 years, about 1.12 million Armenians have left the country - that is, 31 per cent of the total population. Probably, this is a kind of global anti-record, when about a third of the population of a country prefers to emigrate rather than improve life in their homeland.

At the same time, the situation in the country is different from what it was in previous years: despite the return of some of the Armenian migrant workers who worked in Russia, hiding from conscription into the Russian army or who lost their jobs due to economic sanctions, it is not worth counting on their long stay in their historical homeland. Commenting on the situation in the country's labour market, Economy Minister Vahan Kerobyan said in late spring this year that foreign transfers "spoil the people" who receive them, prevent them from working, and stressed that working at home is much more profitable than going abroad to work. Moreover, the minister even accused labour migrants of laziness and unwillingness to work for their country, however, the minister kept silent about the difference in wages at home and abroad, he did not name the branches of the Armenian economy where mythical vacancies allegedly exist.

But Armenia's expert community, for the most part, holds a different opinion, believing that due to the futility of the economic policy of the authorities, the new wave of population migration predicted soon will be more voluminous and prolonged, and its consequences for the demographic stability of the country will be much more catastrophic.

Mass migration and demographic decline, of course, doom Armenia to population decline. According to the rather optimistic forecasts of the UN Population Fund, a little more than 2.7 million people will live in Armenia in the middle of the XXI century, but taking into account current trends, probably even less. Well, the United Nations promises demographic prosperity to Armenia's neighbours in the region: by the middle of the century, the population of Türkiye will increase to 98 million people, 103 million will live in Iran, and the number of Azerbaijani citizens will exceed 12 million people.