F16: Bone of contention between US and Türkiye Analysis by Mikhail Shereshevskiy

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken paid a visit to Türkiye amid another cooling of relations between the countries. Ahead of the visit, Ankara made it clear that its patience due to the acquisition of new F-16 fighter jets from the US has run out.

Türkiye directly links the F-16 issue with its parliament’s ratification of the decision regarding Sweden’s joining NATO. It seems that Ankara will continue hampering Sweden's admission if the issue of aircraft is not resolved.

However, the Americans do not rush. Biden’s administration publicly supported the deal to sell aircraft to Türkiye back in July 2023.

“US President Joe Biden is ready to approve Türkiye’s request for getting F-16 fighter jets,” US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said on the eve of the NATO summit.

He added that Biden intends to move forward on the transfer of F-16 fighter jets without any reservations. Moreover, he said that Biden has previously “made it clear that he supports this deal”.

However, nothing happened. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in mid-December that Biden assured during a phone talk that he has a positive attitude towards the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Ankara and is ready to submit a corresponding proposal to the Congress. It will be difficult to strike such a deal without Congressional consent. The US Department of State has not sent formal notification to Congress yet to consider this issue. Congress does not intend to discuss the sale of aircraft without notification.

“I don't want to comment on when we'll be ready to move forward. We had some difficulties in Congress. We tried to overcome them as carefully as possible. The best thing that can happen to make progress on this issue is for Türkiye to take steps to ratify Sweden's joining NATO as soon as possible,” Spokesman for the US Department of State Matthew Miller said ahead of Blinken's visit.

This remark shows that the Americans are playing for time. Türkiye has made it clear that it is ready to exchange Sweden's admission to NATO for guarantees that it will receive aircraft and it is only necessary to coordinate both decisions in time. Of course, it needs 120 of the latest combat aircraft more than disputes about Sweden and its membership in NATO. Either the Biden administration doesn't want to supply the planes, or it really can't do this because of resistance in Congress. One way or another, this does not change anything at the moment.

This is similar to arms supplies to Ukraine. The US promises assistance and “defence of democracy” but the volume does not meet Ukraine’s needs and is insufficient to go on a decisive offensive. Moreover, the US stopped supplying weapons to the Ukrainian Armed Forces in late 2023. This occurred due to resistance from Republicans in the US Congress. The US blocked an aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, demanding in exchange the adoption of a convenient law, limiting migration.

However, Biden’s administration has previously refused to supply those types of weapons that could greatly change the situation in favour of Ukraine, namely, long-range missiles, combat aircraft and tanks, supplied weapons in microscopic quantities or only promised to supply weapons. The US claims that Biden categorically does not want Ukraine’s victory, even local victory, and intends to freeze the conflict along the existing lines of contact with the Russian Armed Forces, depriving the Ukrainian Armed Forces of important weapons.

The Wall Street Journal has recently published US Professor of Strategic Studies Phillips P. O'Brien’s opinion. Some experts think that the US is trying to exhaust Ukraine this way and force it to offer Moscow negotiations on freezing the conflict.

In fact, we do not fully understand such an attitude of the US with its allies. Perhaps there are people in Biden’s administration who think that it is necessary to play for time, conduct endless negotiations, demand something, and then make microscopic supplies and put forward new conditions to make further supplies. (They were able to send for some reason without Congressional approval 30 batches for modernising F-16 out of 80 requested by Türkiye, but the issue has stalled) or there is such a deep systemic crisis in the US that politicians are unable to solve anything.

In fact, the US leadership behaves like a woman who plays bad games with men - “You and me may have something. But no, not today, maybe tomorrow. Oh no, not tomorrow, you have to do something for me first and so on”.

When Türkiye urged the Americans to supply the Patriot air defence/missile defence system and to provide it with the technology to produce this system, the US refused. Then Türkiye purchased S-400 air defence/missile defence systems from Russia. The US responded by imposing sanctions on Türkiye, excluding it from the F-35 stealth combat aircraft programme.

Türkiye plans to produce its own aircraft, but the production will not begin until 2030. Meanwhile, the Turkish Air Force fleet should be renewed. A half out of 250 F-16 aircraft have been flying for a very long time - they are morally and technically outdated. Therefore, Ankara decided to purchase a new modification from the US – 120 F-16 block 70\72. Some 40 of them will be purchased from the Americans while 80 will be sent to Türkiye for modernisation (30 aircraft have been received, as was already mentioned). The matter rests in the thorough modernisation of the F-16, which opens completely new combat capabilities and intensifies the Turkish Air Force. However, the above-mentioned problem with supplies occurred.

This practice undermines the US credibility. If the US treats their allies this way, it means that it is not the reliable protection and support for them that it once was, for example, during the Cold War.

Meanwhile, contradictions between powers are growing in the modern world. On the one hand, the US and NATO bloc (which also includes Türkiye) is still the most powerful one, along with other forces aligned with the Americans (Israel, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan). It defends the world order that emerged after the fall of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), within which these forces still dominated the world. The mentioned countries are linked by various agreements on military-political and economic partnerships, designed to protect global production chains, and onshore and offshore trade routes necessary for international business.

On the other hand, amid the US growing insecurity, a bloc of revisionist powers is being gradually formed, i.e. those who are interested in revising the current situation in the world - an alliance of China, Russia and Iran. This bloc has not been formed yet and its military-political and economic state is insignificant to pose a direct challenge to the US and its allies. It still lags behind its opponents in economic, military, and technological terms. Moreover, the main power of this potential bloc - China is greatly dependent on the markets of the US and its allies, trade with which (about $2 trillion) exceeds trade volumes with Russia by 10 times, and with Iran by 100 times. Entering into a direct confrontation with opponents without the formation of a more or less self-sufficient common economic space is not a good idea.

Nevertheless, the position of the US, which behaves with its allies in such a unique way, looks strange amid the process of forming an alternative bloc. As a result, Türkiye, like the UAE and Saudi Arabia - countries that were previously part of the US sphere of influence, is gradually moving to a multi-vector policy, establishing independent relations with Iran, Russia and China. Türkiye’s trade with Russia has more than doubled in the past two years, reaching about $70 billion. Moreover, Ankara hampers Sweden's joining NATO. Such contradictions may intensify due to the position chosen by the Americans.

However, Türkiye can hope for Donald Trump to come to power in the US. After all, Trump’s administration during the last period of its activity was much more favourable to Ankara than Biden’s.